Bernstein lowers Constellation Brands stock price target to $195 on recovery concerns

Published 04/09/2025, 15:16
Bernstein lowers Constellation Brands stock price target to $195 on recovery concerns

Investing.com - Bernstein SocGen Group has lowered its price target on Constellation Brands (NYSE:STZ) to $195.00 from $225.00 while maintaining an Outperform rating. The stock, currently trading at $146.64, has declined 32.56% year-to-date and is trading near its 52-week low of $146.32. According to InvestingPro analysis, the stock appears undervalued at current levels.

The adjustment follows Constellation’s significant reduction to its fiscal year 2026 guidance earlier this week. The company cut its beer net sales growth forecast by approximately 4.5 percentage points, which includes a 6-7 percentage point inventory headwind expected in the second quarter.

Beer operating income growth projections were reduced by approximately 9 percentage points, reflecting the impact of lower volumes, operating deleveraging, and additional tariffs. The overall cut to earnings per share guidance amounts to approximately 10% at the midpoint.

Bernstein noted that while "the brands are not broken," recovery for Constellation Brands "is unlikely to be in a straight line," which factored into the firm’s decision to lower its target multiple for the stock.

The analyst firm also raised questions about Constellation’s capacity expansion plans, noting that the company’s fiscal year 2028 goal of 55 million hectoliters and fiscal year 2026 capital expenditure target of approximately $1.2 billion remain unchanged despite the guidance cuts.

In other recent news, Constellation Brands has faced a series of analyst downgrades and price target reductions due to weakened beer demand and revised financial forecasts. BMO Capital lowered its price target for Constellation Brands to $190 from $215, maintaining an Outperform rating, following the company’s significant reduction in its fiscal year 2026 outlook. TD Cowen also cut its price target to $152 from $180, citing declining beer sales and maintaining a Hold rating. Evercore ISI adjusted its price target to $170 from $210 after Constellation Brands downgraded its guidance and provided further context at an industry conference. Jefferies reduced its price target to $179 from $205, highlighting ongoing challenges in the Hispanic consumer segment. In corporate developments, Constellation Brands announced equity awards for its CFO, Garth Hankinson, as approved by the board’s Human Resources Committee. Hankinson received restricted stock units and performance share units, with specific vesting conditions outlined. These recent developments reflect the company’s adjustments to market conditions and strategic decisions.

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