Bernstein lowers Elevance stock price target to $445 on ACA, Medicaid pressure

Published 21/07/2025, 13:24
Bernstein lowers Elevance stock price target to $445 on ACA, Medicaid pressure

Investing.com - Bernstein analyst lowered the price target on Elevance (NYSE:ELV) to $445.00 from $487.00 on Monday, while maintaining an Outperform rating. The stock, currently trading near its 52-week low of $276.41, appears undervalued according to InvestingPro analysis.

The price target reduction follows Elevance’s second-quarter 2025 results, which showed adjusted earnings per share of $8.84, in line with consensus estimates. Revenue came in at $49.8 billion, approximately 2.8% above consensus, driven by higher pharmacy revenues and premiums per policy. The company maintains strong fundamentals with 10.2% year-over-year revenue growth and trades at an attractive P/E ratio of 11.85x.

The company’s medical loss ratio was 88.9%, 25 basis points below consensus, though Bernstein noted this likely benefited from a value-based care contract settlement. Affordable Care Act (ACA) and Individual membership were lower than expected.

Bernstein cited elongated recovery timelines in ACA and Medicaid segments as key factors for the price target reduction. The firm expects Medicaid recovery to require further rate increases into 2027-2028 due to risk pool pressures, while the Individual segment is projected to recover in 2027.

Despite these challenges, Bernstein remains positive on Elevance stock at current levels, noting the valuation appears too low considering the projected 60% earnings per share growth over the next four years. Get deeper insights into Elevance’s valuation and growth prospects with a comprehensive Pro Research Report, available exclusively on InvestingPro.

In other recent news, Elevance Health has experienced several notable developments. The company reported a second-quarter earnings per share of $8.84, marking a 12.6% decline year-over-year and falling short of consensus estimates by $0.14, according to UBS. As a result, Elevance has adjusted its full-year 2025 earnings guidance to $30.00 per share, a significant decrease from its earlier forecast. Guggenheim noted that the company’s quarterly results were aided by a $209 million value-based care settlement, contributing approximately $0.70 per share, alongside a one-time tax benefit estimated at $0.50 per share. In light of these financial pressures, several firms have adjusted their price targets for Elevance. TD Cowen lowered its target to $330, citing challenges in the Health Insurance Exchange and Medicaid segments, while UBS set its target at $435 due to ongoing Medicaid cost pressures. Guggenheim and Leerink Partners also reduced their targets to $360 and $310, respectively, with Leerink downgrading Elevance to Market Perform over growth concerns. Despite these challenges, firms like Cantor Fitzgerald and Guggenheim maintain a positive outlook on Elevance’s potential for margin improvement in various segments.

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