Bernstein maintains Dollar General stock with $90 target

Published 10/03/2025, 13:02
Bernstein maintains Dollar General stock with $90 target

On Monday, Bernstein analysts, led by Zhihan Ma, reaffirmed their Outperform rating for Dollar General (NYSE:DG) shares, maintaining a price target of $90.00. The stock, currently trading at $81.84, has shown strong momentum with a 13.84% gain over the past week. According to InvestingPro analysis, Dollar General appears undervalued based on its Fair Value model, with the stock trading at an attractive P/E ratio of 13.4. The analysts predict that low-income consumers will continue to face financial challenges, noting a persistent wide gap in consumer sentiment between high and low-income groups. Although this gap is beginning to close, rising inflation expectations could disproportionately affect low-income shoppers. Policy uncertainties regarding the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) may add to the strain on this demographic. As a prominent player in the Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail industry, Dollar General maintains a solid financial health score of 2.48 (FAIR) according to InvestingPro, which offers comprehensive analysis through its Pro Research Reports covering 1,400+ top US stocks.

Dollar General is seen as a company that still needs to demonstrate its ability to enhance store operations. Despite a dip in sentiment in the fourth quarter of 2024, possibly due to increased holiday sales activities, proprietary analysis of the Dollar General Reddit channel indicates an improvement from a previous low in the second half of 2023. While some progress has been made, analysts believe that management’s reinvestment in labor and store operations will be crucial for a successful turnaround and to reconnect with customers.

The research suggests approximately 190 basis points (bps) of potential gross margin expansion for Dollar General, driven by strategies such as shrink reduction, private label growth, and normalization of the category mix. Bernstein’s conservative estimates project a gross margin expansion of around 70bps from fiscal year 2023 to 2027, which is 100bps above the consensus. Currently, the company maintains a gross profit margin of 29.61%, with investors eagerly awaiting the next earnings report scheduled for March 13, 2025. This margin growth is expected to fund investments in labor and store improvements.

The analysts forecast that Dollar General will increase its selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.5% over the coming years. This projection includes a degree of caution and suggests that SG&A rates as a percentage of net sales will be approximately 40-70bps higher than the consensus in fiscal years 2026 and 2027. The report emphasizes the need for Dollar General to invest in its operations to achieve a turnaround and re-engage with its customer base.

In other recent news, Dollar General has been the focus of several key developments. Goldman Sachs adjusted its financial outlook for the company, reducing the price target from $104 to $93, while maintaining a Buy rating. This adjustment was due to increased selling, general, and administrative costs, which are expected to offset benefits from improved shrinkage control. Additionally, Telsey Advisory Group lowered its price target for Dollar General from $88 to $85, retaining a Market Perform rating, citing a challenging consumer spending environment and increased competition from retailers like Walmart (NYSE:WMT), Aldi, and Lidl. Both firms highlighted the financial strain on Dollar General’s core customer base, which consists largely of lower-income households.

In terms of corporate strategy, Dollar General announced executive leadership changes. Steve Deckard was named Executive Vice President of Strategy and Development, while Tracey Herrmann was promoted to Executive Vice President of Store Operations. These changes aim to strengthen the company’s strategic focus and operational efficiency as it navigates a competitive retail landscape. The company continues to invest in initiatives like Project Elevate, which includes store remodels and aims to enhance customer experience and operational performance. Analysts from Goldman Sachs project that Dollar General’s strategic positioning will continue to attract customers, particularly in rural areas where alternative shopping options are limited.

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