Bernstein maintains J.M. Smucker rating, $104 target

Published 28/05/2025, 13:44
Bernstein maintains J.M. Smucker rating, $104 target

On Wednesday, Bernstein analysts maintained their Market Perform rating on J.M. Smucker shares (NYSE:SJM) with a steady price target of $104.00, near the low end of analyst targets ranging from $104 to $135. Currently trading at $113.93, InvestingPro analysis suggests the stock is fairly valued, with a Financial Health Score of 2.29 (FAIR). The analysts are closely monitoring the company’s coffee segment performance as it approaches its fourth-quarter earnings report scheduled for June 10, 2025. Concerns are particularly focused on the financial year 2026, following the previous quarter’s lowered guidance for FY25 due to rising coffee input costs.

J.M. Smucker’s coffee segment, which constitutes about 30% of its sales and approximately 38% of its profit, is under scrutiny as coffee input costs have nearly doubled since January 2024 and have risen by 13% year-to-date. The company’s overall revenue reached $8.79 billion in the last twelve months, with a 7.07% growth rate. InvestingPro data reveals the company maintains strong dividend credentials, having sustained payments for 55 consecutive years. The analysts draw parallels to the situation in 2011 when coffee commodity prices saw a significant spike, leading to an increase in product pricing and a subsequent drop in segment margins.

In their commentary, Bernstein analysts outlined a bearish scenario where segment profitability could decline by 15% due to the delayed impact of coffee input cost inflation, assuming a 4-6 month hedging period. This projection stands in contrast to the consensus, which anticipates a 6% decrease in retail coffee EBIT. According to Bernstein’s analysis, this could result in a 3% downside to consensus estimates for the company’s overall EBIT and a 6% downside for EPS.

The analysts’ statement highlighted the challenges faced by J.M. Smucker in managing input costs and maintaining profitability in its coffee business. As the company heads towards announcing its earnings on June 10, 2025, the focus remains on how it will navigate the cost pressures and their potential impact on financial performance. With a defensive beta of 0.34, the stock has shown relative stability. Discover more insights and access the comprehensive Pro Research Report for SJM, along with 1,400+ other stocks, exclusively on InvestingPro.

In other recent news, J.M. Smucker Co. announced plans to shut down its Indianapolis facility by early 2026. This move is part of the company’s strategy to streamline its manufacturing network and support its Sweet Baked Snacks strategy. The decision is aimed at stabilizing and fostering growth for the Hostess® business, with further details expected during the fiscal year 2025 fourth-quarter results. Additionally, Citi analysts have adjusted J.M. Smucker’s price target slightly to $128 while maintaining a Buy rating, anticipating strong performance in the Coffee segment despite potential cost pressures.

UBS has initiated coverage on J.M. Smucker with a Buy rating and set a price target of $134, citing the company’s consistent growth and market share stability. UBS also noted that coffee inflation might impact earnings per share growth, but believes the market has already accounted for this. In leadership developments, John Brase has been promoted to President and COO, recognizing his contributions to the company’s growth and strategic execution. Brase’s expanded role will include oversight of key segments and engagement in industry associations to enhance the company’s influence.

These recent developments highlight J.M. Smucker’s ongoing efforts to optimize operations and maintain a strong market position.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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