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On Tuesday, BMO Capital Markets began coverage of HudBay Minerals (TSX:HBM:CN) (NYSE: HBM), assigning the stock an Outperform rating and setting a price target of Cdn$12.00. The new rating reflects the firm’s confidence in HudBay’s operational performance and growth prospects. The company, currently valued at $2.77 billion, has demonstrated strong operational execution with revenue growth of 19.6% over the last twelve months. InvestingPro analysis indicates that net income is expected to grow this year, supporting BMO’s optimistic outlook.
The coverage initiation by BMO Capital Markets highlights HudBay Minerals as a well-managed copper producer with significant gold production. The analyst noted the company’s low-risk assets and good commodity beta, alongside multiple catalysts that could drive the stock’s performance. These include the partnership and development of the Copper World project and the turnaround of Copper Mountain. With a beta of 2.03, investors should note the stock’s higher volatility compared to the broader market. InvestingPro data shows the company maintains a GREAT financial health score, suggesting strong operational fundamentals.
HudBay Minerals’ stock is currently trading at 4.1x EV/EBITDA, which BMO Capital attributes to market perceptions of short mine lives and upcoming capital expenditures. Despite these concerns, the firm’s guidance indicates that HudBay can maintain its current production levels. The analyst also considers the anticipated capital expenditures for the Copper World project to be easily manageable. According to InvestingPro analysis, the company boasts a strong free cash flow yield of 12%, suggesting ample financial flexibility. Based on InvestingPro’s Fair Value assessment, the stock appears to be trading below its intrinsic value, presenting a potential opportunity for investors.
The firm is optimistic about HudBay’s future, particularly in light of expected exploration results from the company’s operations in Peru and Manitoba. These results are anticipated to further reinforce the positive outlook for HudBay Minerals, as per the analyst’s commentary.
Investors have been given a positive signal with the Outperform rating from BMO Capital, suggesting that the firm sees potential for HudBay Minerals’ stock to outperform the market or its sector based on the company’s current operations and future plans.
In other recent news, HudBay Minerals reported a strong quarterly performance, surpassing expectations with a cash flow per share of $0.59, compared to analysts’ projection of $0.53 per share. The company achieved a record quarterly free cash flow of $149 million. Gold production also exceeded expectations, with 94,000 ounces delivered against the anticipated 80,000 ounces. Despite these positive results, HudBay’s stock has underperformed due to market reactions to its 2025 guidance, which indicated lower-than-expected copper and gold outputs. This is primarily attributed to reduced production forecasts from the Pampacancha project in Peru.
Stifel analysts have maintained a Buy rating on HudBay Minerals, with a consistent price target of Cdn$16.50. They noted that HudBay is currently trading at a price to cash flow multiple below its peers, suggesting potential undervaluation. The company’s improved balance sheet, with a leverage ratio of 0.6 times, is seen as a positive factor for future growth. Stifel anticipates a partnership announcement for the Copper World project in the coming months and recommends buying shares amid current market weakness.
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