BMO cuts KinderCare stock price target to $21 from $26

Published 14/05/2025, 12:32
BMO cuts KinderCare stock price target to $21 from $26

On Wednesday, BMO Capital Markets adjusted its outlook on KinderCare Learning Companies (NYSE:KLC), reducing the stock’s price target to $21 from the previous $26 while retaining an Outperform rating. The stock, currently trading at $13.46, has seen a significant decline of 45% over the past six months, according to InvestingPro data. The revision follows KinderCare’s recent financial performance, where the company surpassed adjusted EBITDA projections primarily due to lower-than-anticipated cost of revenues, benefiting from grant-related savings. The company’s EBITDA stands at $158 million, with revenue reaching $2.68 billion and showing a 5% year-over-year growth.

KinderCare’s revenue increase was attributed to pricing strategies and growth in its Champions program, although it fell slightly short of both BMO Capital’s and the consensus expectations. Despite this, KinderCare’s management conveyed increased confidence in the sustainability of Block Grants, a segment that experienced an 11% growth in the quarter.

The company’s leadership also confirmed their guidance for the year 2025 but acknowledged some negative shifts in the macroeconomic environment since the fourth-quarter earnings report. These changes have seemingly extended the duration of decision-making processes, even as demand remains robust.

In response to these developments, BMO Capital has updated its estimates and target price for KinderCare. The firm’s analysis reflects a careful consideration of the company’s financial health, market position, and the broader economic factors that may influence its performance.

In other recent news, KinderCare Learning Companies reported its first-quarter 2025 financial results, revealing an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.23, which exceeded analysts’ expectations of $0.16. Despite this positive EPS outcome, the company’s revenue of $668 million fell short of the $689.12 million forecast. KinderCare’s total revenue grew by 2.1% year-over-year, with organic growth contributing 1.2% to this figure. The company maintained its full-year 2025 revenue guidance of $2.75 billion to $2.85 billion and projected adjusted EBITDA between $310 million and $325 million. JPMorgan analyst Andrew Steinerman adjusted the price target for KinderCare to $15.00 while maintaining an Overweight rating, citing concerns about enrollment growth and pricing challenges in the early childhood education sector. The company added 10 new centers and expanded operations into Idaho, reflecting its strategic growth initiatives. Despite the revenue miss, KinderCare’s adjusted EBITDA increased by 12% to $84 million, showcasing effective cost management. The company remains confident in achieving its medium-term growth objectives, expecting 1-2% occupancy growth annually.

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