BMO cuts Kinsale Capital target to $429, keeps Market Perform

Published 03/03/2025, 17:40
BMO cuts Kinsale Capital target to $429, keeps Market Perform

On Monday, BMO Capital Markets adjusted its outlook on Kinsale Capital (NYSE:KNSL) shares, reducing the price target to $429 from the previous $461, while retaining a Market Perform rating on the stock. According to InvestingPro data, analyst targets now range from $402 to $535, with the stock currently trading around $430. The revision follows Kinsale Capital’s fourth-quarter results for the fiscal year 2024, which did not meet growth expectations, prompting 9 analysts to revise their earnings estimates downward.

Michael Zaremski, an analyst at BMO Capital, noted a surprising sequential drop in submission rates, a key metric for the company’s business, which fell to 17% from 23%. This decline was also contrasted with broader trends in the Excess & Surplus (E&S) lines market, where Kinsale’s growth lagged for the first time. Zaremski anticipates a turnaround in the second quarter of 2025, predicting submission rates and pricing to stabilize, with a slight decrease in casualty pricing.

Looking ahead, BMO Capital expects Kinsale Capital’s growth to pick up pace into 2026, as competition from Managing General Agents (MGAs) is projected to wane, potentially allowing Kinsale to recapture market share in the casualty E&S segment. However, BMO’s projections for the company’s combined ratio in 2026 are approximately 210 basis points worse than the consensus, driven primarily by a higher underlying loss ratio of around 180 basis points.

The analyst’s comments reflect management’s strategy discussed during the company’s fourth-quarter call, indicating a willingness to compromise on margins to foster growth and enhance stockholder value. Management suggested that by "trading away some of that excess profitability on some specific lines of business," Kinsale could drive better growth and maximize wealth creation for its stockholders.

In other recent news, Kinsale Capital Group reported strong financial results for the fourth quarter of 2024, with earnings per share (EPS) of $4.62, surpassing analyst expectations of $4.30. The company also exceeded revenue forecasts, reporting $412.12 million against the anticipated $367.12 million. Despite these positive financial results, Compass Point adjusted its price target for Kinsale Capital to $450 from $475, maintaining a Neutral rating due to potential valuation compression concerns. Meanwhile, Truist Securities raised its price target for Kinsale Capital to $525, up from $480, and maintained a Buy rating, citing a positive outlook on the company’s earnings growth and investment income.

Furthermore, Kinsale Capital announced a change in its Board of Directors, with James J. Ritchie deciding not to stand for re-election at the 2025 Annual Meeting. The company plans to reduce its board size from 10 to 9 directors following Ritchie’s departure. Kinsale Capital also launched a new agribusiness underwriting unit and expanded into personal lines insurance, indicating strategic growth initiatives. The company continues to experience strong growth, with a 19.4% increase in operating earnings per share and a 12.2% growth in gross written premium for the quarter. These developments reflect Kinsale Capital’s ongoing efforts to expand its market presence and enhance shareholder value.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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