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On Wednesday, BofA Securities adjusted its stance on American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL) by reducing the stock’s price target from $20.00 to $16.00, while maintaining a Neutral rating. The revision comes as the stock has fallen nearly 19% in the past week, trading at $11.46. The adjustment follows American Airlines’ announcement of a 4% decrease in first-quarter 2025 revenues, which, according to BofA Securities analyst Andrew Didora, was less severe than anticipated, even considering the impact of Flight 5342’s accident.
Didora has updated the earnings per share (EPS) estimate for the first quarter of 2025 to $(0.70), situating it at the midpoint of the company’s new projected range. Additionally, the analyst has slightly decreased the forecast for domestic unit revenue growth for the remainder of the year. Taking into account the revised revenue growth expectations and lower fuel costs, the full-year 2025 EPS estimate has been modified to $2.30, down from the previous $2.60 estimate. This is compared to the company’s outlook, which ranges between $1.70 and $2.70. The company currently trades at a P/E ratio of 9.1x, reflecting its position as a prominent player in the Passenger Airlines industry.
The new price target is also influenced by a change in the multiple used to value the airline’s stock. The valuation multiple has been adjusted to a range of 5-5.5 times from the former 5.5 times, reflecting softer revenue growth projections. Despite the lowered price target, BofA Securities reaffirmed its Neutral rating on American Airlines shares.
The adjustment to the price target and EPS estimates by BofA Securities is a direct response to American Airlines’ revised revenue guidance and the broader economic factors influencing the airline’s performance. The maintenance of the Neutral rating indicates that the firm’s outlook on the stock remains unchanged despite the revised financial projections.
In other recent news, Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL) has revised its profit forecast for the first quarter, reducing its revenue growth estimate to 3-4% from the previously projected 7-9%. This adjustment is attributed to a decrease in consumer and corporate confidence, which has led to weaker domestic demand. Similarly, American Airlines has warned of a larger-than-expected first-quarter loss due to a slump in leisure travel demand and incidents affecting its operations. Despite these challenges, Citi analysts have maintained a Buy rating for American Airlines, albeit with a lowered price target of $21.50, down from $23.00.
Citi’s revision is based on a projected decline in revenue per available seat mile and an anticipated decrease in fuel prices. Meanwhile, Southwest Airlines (NYSE:LUV) has adjusted its unit revenue guidance downward and announced a policy shift to charge for certain checked luggage, ending its long-standing free-bag policy. The travel and hospitality sector is experiencing a downturn, with industry leaders like Expedia (NASDAQ:EXPE), Booking (NASDAQ:BKNG), and Airbnb seeing share declines. This trend is largely driven by Delta’s announcement, which has cast a shadow over the entire travel sector. Investors are keeping a close watch on these developments, as they could significantly impact travel-related stocks.
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