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On Thursday, BofA Securities adjusted its stance on Phoenix Group (PHNX:LN) (OTC:PHXXF), downgrading the stock from Buy to Neutral and setting a new price target at GBP6.68, up from the previous GBP6.50. The revision follows a 32% year-to-date return on Phoenix shares, which, according to BofA, now presents a total return potential of just 13%.
The reassessment by BofA Securities comes after Phoenix Group’s new CFO addressed concerns over falling shareholders’ equity in the full-year results announcement. The CFO provided assurances that the dividend is expected to be sustainable and to grow progressively. Despite this, BofA notes that Phoenix’s dividend yield no longer stands out when compared to its peers.
Phoenix Group’s estimated 8.5% dividend yield for 2025 remains one of the most attractive in the FTSE100, ranking as the third-highest dividend yield. The company also anticipates a 2.5% per annum growth, maintaining its appeal to investors. However, BofA Securities points out that when considering the UK 10-year bond yield at 4.7%, Phoenix’s yield spread over the sovereign yield is in the lower half among European insurers.
Additionally, when compared within the UK Life insurance sector, Phoenix’s yield is only the third highest and is roughly equivalent to Aviva (LON:AV)’s yield, adjusted for its Direct Line (LON:DLGD) Group (DLG) acquisition and potential buybacks. This comparison suggests that Phoenix Group’s dividend attractiveness is somewhat diminished in the broader market context.
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