Robinhood reports August 2025 customer and trading metrics
Investing.com - Bank of America analysts expect significant divisions within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) at its September meeting, according to a research note released Thursday. The market’s sensitivity to these expectations is reflected in the 20-year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), which is currently trading near its 52-week low at $86.97, despite maintaining a 2.05% year-to-date return. InvestingPro data shows the bond market has maintained relatively low volatility with a beta of 0.47.
The bank anticipates several committee members, including Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, along with San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and nominee Adriana Kugler (referred to as Miran in the note), to maintain firmly dovish positions. BofA suggests that even if the Federal Reserve implements a 25 basis point cut, Kugler and Bowman might dissent in favor of a larger 50 basis point reduction. For real-time analysis of how rate decisions impact Treasury markets, InvestingPro subscribers can access exclusive insights and advanced market indicators.
In contrast, the research note identifies several FOMC members as maintaining hawkish stances, including Philip Jefferson (referred to as Hammack), Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Alberto Musalem, and Adriana Kugler (referred to as Schmid), with the latter two being voting members.
Bank of America analysts indicate they "wouldn’t rule out dissents in both directions if the Fed cuts this month," highlighting the potential for an unusual split vote at the upcoming meeting.
The bank’s outlook is contingent on avoiding "a disastrous jobs report" ahead of the September FOMC meeting, suggesting that employment data remains a critical factor in the committee’s decision-making process.
In other recent news, the U.S. Department of the Treasury announced plans to offer $125 billion in Treasury securities to refund approximately $89.8 billion of privately-held Treasury notes and bonds maturing in August 2025. This move is set to generate about $35.2 billion in new cash through three distinct offerings, including a $58 billion 3-year note, a $42 billion 10-year note, and a $25 billion 30-year bond. Additionally, Bank of America forecasts an increase in June’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), which could impact the Federal Reserve’s decision on a potential rate cut in September. The bank predicts that both headline and core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month in June.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs maintains a positive outlook on long positions in the front-end of the U.S. yield curve, anticipating benefits if the market prices in faster interest rate cuts. Richmond Federal Reserve President Tom Barkin highlighted ongoing demographic challenges in the labor market, noting uncertainty in hiring trends but no immediate plans for layoffs among businesses. Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee discussed the potential impact of tariffs on inflation, a factor crucial to the timing of future interest rate decisions. These developments reflect the complex economic landscape that investors are navigating.
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