BofA lifts Universal Robina stock to neutral, raises target to PHP95

Published 16/05/2025, 09:52
BofA lifts Universal Robina stock to neutral, raises target to PHP95

On Friday, BofA Securities analyst Philip Albert Felix upgraded Universal Robina Corporation (URC:PM) (OTC:UVRBF) to Neutral from its previous Underperform rating and increased the price target to PHP95.00, up from PHP59.75. The upgrade reflects a positive shift in the company’s outlook, with the analyst citing several key factors for the revised rating and price target.

The adjustment in the rating and price target comes after a comprehensive review of Universal Robina’s financial year 2024 and first quarter of 2025 performance, alongside a reduction in the estimated capital expenditures for financial year 2025 by 23% to PHP10 billion. The Branded Consumer Foods Philippines (BCF PH) segment showed promising signs of growth in the first quarter of 2025, achieving a 4% year-over-year revenue increase, which was also 7% higher than the previous quarter. This growth was largely attributed to successful volume sales driven by the company’s value intervention program introduced last year, along with a favorable price recovery in sugar.

Despite the positive revenue growth, Universal Robina faced challenges with lower gross margins, primarily due to increased costs of Robusta coffee. Additionally, the company saw a decline in earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) by 30% year-over-year in its animal nutrition segment and a 50% drop in flour EBIT, as a result of the startup costs associated with a new plant in Malvar, Batangas. The overall gross profit margin (GPM) for the first quarter of 2025 decreased by 2.6% year-over-year to 26.6%.

In light of these developments, BofA Securities has raised its core profit estimates for Universal Robina for the fiscal years 2025 and 2026 by 23.5% and 25.9%, respectively, to PHP12.6 billion and PHP12.9 billion. The firm also increased its revenue forecasts for the same years by 6% to PHP177 billion and PHP185 billion, respectively. The revised estimates and rating upgrade reflect a cautiously optimistic view of Universal Robina’s financial prospects as the company navigates through operational challenges and capitalizes on growth opportunities.

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