BofA maintains Neutral on Brinker stock, target at $167

Published 29/01/2025, 16:30
BofA maintains Neutral on Brinker stock, target at $167

On Wednesday, BofA Securities maintained a Neutral rating on Brinker International (NYSE:EAT) with a consistent price target of $167.00. The firm’s analysis highlighted that Brinker’s second-quarter company-owned comparable sales (comps) surged 31%, surpassing the consensus estimates of 14.0% and 18.3% set by BofA and Visible Alpha, respectively. The strong performance was hinted at by higher frequency credit card data, indicating continued momentum in top-line growth. According to InvestingPro data, this momentum is reflected in the stock’s impressive 280% return over the past year, with the shares currently trading near their 52-week high.

Brinker’s Chili’s brand demonstrated robust traffic and a favorable sales mix, indicating the company’s effective strategies in growing check sizes through higher attach rates or premium offerings. The second-quarter restaurant-level EBITDA margins exceeded expectations, coming in at 19.1% compared to the BofA and Visible Alpha consensus of 15.7% and 16.0%, thanks to impressive same-store sales growth (SSSG) and effective restaurant expense management. The company’s total EBITDA stands at $481.4 million, though InvestingPro analysis suggests the stock is trading above its Fair Value, with 12 analysts recently revising their earnings expectations upward.

The company’s labor costs, representing 19.1% of sales, were 100 basis points below the consensus, and other restaurant expenses were nearly 300 basis points lower. Notably, Brinker’s restaurant margins reached a multi-year peak, surpassing the 18.9% seen in the third quarter of 2015 and the pre-COVID average of around 15%. This performance indicates that the company’s previous guidance of a 100 basis points year-over-year expansion was conservative.

Earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter stood at $2.80, significantly outperforming the BofA and Visible Alpha consensus of $1.56 and $1.78, respectively. This beat was attributed to the strong SSSG, which more than compensated for a slight increase in interest expenses ($14.7 million versus the consensus of $14.0 million and $14.5 million) and general and administrative costs ($53 million compared to the consensus of $52 million).

Relative to the S&P, Brinker is trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 1.2 times, based on pre-release estimates, which is substantially higher than its 5-year historical average of 0.6 times. The firm notes that while Chili’s SSSG continues to impress, the key to sustaining multiple expansion will be continued top-line momentum and better-than-expected flow through to restaurant-level margin.

In other recent news, Brinker International has experienced a series of analyst upgrades and downgrades. Stifel has raised Brinker’s stock price target to $170, citing potential for increased earnings. BMO Capital Markets maintained its Market Perform rating but increased the price target to $125, revising their full-year 2025 earnings per share (EPS) projection to $6.78, and a higher expectation for fiscal year 2026 at $7.87 per share. KeyBanc Capital Markets revised its rating on Brinker from "Overweight" to "Sector Weight," while Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) upgraded Brinker’s stock from Underweight to Equalweight, increasing the price target to $115. Goldman Sachs initiated coverage on Brinker with a Buy rating and a price target of $150.00.

In addition, Brinker International has granted substantial stock-based compensation awards to its top executives, with CEO and President Kevin Hochman receiving performance shares with a target value of $20 million. This reflects the company’s confidence in its growth trajectory.

These are recent developments that reflect Brinker’s commitment to operational efficiency and strong start to the fiscal year, marked by increased sales and profitability. Analyst firms such as KeyBanc Capital Markets, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Piper Sandler, and Stifel have provided their insights and expectations on Brinker’s future performance. However, these are merely their views and should not be considered as definitive indications of the company’s future performance.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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