BofA Securities raises Nvidia stock price target to $220 on China sales analysis

Published 15/07/2025, 17:34
© Reuters.

Investing.com - BofA Securities raised its price target on Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) to $220.00 from $180.00 while maintaining a Buy rating. The stock, which has delivered an impressive 27.78% return over the past year, currently trades near its 52-week high with strong momentum.

The price target increase reflects BofA’s scenario analysis of incremental sales and earnings potential, particularly regarding Nvidia’s China shipments of H20 chips and Blackwell equivalents. According to InvestingPro data, NVDA has demonstrated remarkable revenue growth of 86.17% in the last twelve months, though current valuations suggest the stock may be trading above its Fair Value.

BofA assumes a quarterly China shipment run-rate of $4-6 billion for the second half of calendar year 2025, which it expects to remain flat year-over-year in 2026 due to continued restrictions on more advanced products and increased local competition.

The analysis suggests China will account for 14% of the global AI accelerator market in 2025, decreasing to 12% by 2026, and potentially 5-10% over time, aligning with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s projection of a $50 billion China total addressable market over the next 2-3 years.

With an excellent Financial Health Score of 3.9 and strong profitability metrics, BofA estimates the incremental sales could generate 5% and 7% earnings per share accretion for fiscal years 2026 and 2027, respectively, with the new price target based on a 37x multiple of the projected $5.87 EPS for fiscal year 2027.

In other recent news, Nvidia has been making headlines with several key developments. The company is looking to resume sales of its H20 GPUs to China, potentially unlocking around $10 billion in near-term revenue from previously written-down inventory. This move comes as Nvidia has received assurances from U.S. officials that licenses will likely be granted soon. William Blair has reiterated its Outperform rating on Nvidia, highlighting potential earnings upside from renewed access to the China market, projecting an additional $0.30 in earnings per share for fiscal 2026.

Citi has also reaffirmed its Buy rating on Nvidia, noting the significant $50 billion market opportunity in China, although it advises a cautious approach before fully factoring in this contribution. Meanwhile, Oppenheimer has raised its price target for Nvidia to $200, citing strong growth prospects driven by generative AI, data center accelerators, and autonomous vehicles. The firm maintains an Outperform rating, emphasizing the structural tailwinds supporting Nvidia’s top-line growth. Additionally, Nvidia plans to introduce a new, fully compliant RTX PRO GPU for the Chinese market, potentially addressing previous sales impacts.

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