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On Friday, B.Riley initiated coverage on Cinemark Holdings (NYSE:CNK), assigning a Neutral rating to the company’s shares, coupled with a price target of $35.00. The research firm’s analysis acknowledged Cinemark’s position as a leading entity in the North American market, citing its history of outperforming its peers, industry-leading profit margins, and a robust financial structure. According to InvestingPro data, the company maintains a healthy gross profit margin of 49% and has received upward earnings revisions from two analysts for the upcoming period.
The firm adjusted its forecasts for Cinemark for the years 2025 and 2026, slightly lowering estimates but maintaining a positive outlook for the period. Projections indicate solid revenue growth in the mid to high single-digit percentages and an increase in AEBITDA margin to over 20%. B.Riley’s stance is influenced by Cinemark’s performance, which has seen its stock value increase by nearly 80% over the trailing twelve months according to InvestingPro data, outpacing the Russell 2000’s 1% gain during the same period. The company’s expected revenue growth of 9% for FY2025 supports this positive outlook.
The analyst at B.Riley noted that Cinemark’s current stock price seems to have factored in a recovery in box office revenues. For a more bullish perspective on Cinemark’s shares, the firm would seek evidence of market outperformance, consistent market share gains, and potential for valuation multiples to rise beyond the pre-pandemic average of 8 times forward AEBITDA. InvestingPro analysis reveals that while the company maintains a GOOD overall financial health score, its RSI suggests the stock is currently in overbought territory. Subscribers can access 10 additional ProTips and comprehensive valuation metrics in the Pro Research Report.
B.Riley’s coverage comes with the caveat that while they recognize Cinemark’s strong operational history and financial health, the stock would be more appealing at a price range in the mid to high $20s, assuming all other conditions remain constant. This stance suggests a cautious approach to Cinemark’s current valuation, despite the company’s favorable attributes and market position and its current P/E ratio of 17.7x.
In other recent news, Cinemark Holdings reported its first-quarter 2025 earnings, revealing a notable revenue achievement of $540.7 million, surpassing the forecasted $524.2 million. However, the company faced a loss of $0.32 per share, missing the expected loss of $0.27 per share. Despite the mixed earnings results, the revenue beat was supported by the strong performance of the Minecraft movie and an expansion in premium movie-going experiences. Additionally, Goldman Sachs maintained a Sell rating for Cinemark, setting a price target of $22, while acknowledging the company’s revenue exceeded expectations at $541 million compared to the consensus of $531 million. The analysts highlighted that Cinemark’s Adjusted EBITDA fell short at $36 million, below the anticipated $39 million. Cinemark has also reaffirmed its forecast for modest growth in average ticket prices and per capita spending in the US for 2025. Furthermore, the company announced a $200 million stock buyback program to manage potential dilution from an upcoming convertible security. These developments reflect the company’s efforts to navigate market challenges and capitalize on strategic initiatives.
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