BTIG cuts Hudson Pacific stock target to $10, maintains Buy

Published 18/02/2025, 13:10
BTIG cuts Hudson Pacific stock target to $10, maintains Buy

On Tuesday, BTIG analyst Thomas Catherwood adjusted the price target for Hudson Pacific Properties (NYSE:HPP) to $10.00 from the previous $11.00, while reiterating a Buy rating on the stock. Currently trading at $2.79, HPP's analyst targets range from $2.40 to $11.00, reflecting diverse market opinions. The revision comes ahead of the company's fourth-quarter earnings report set to be released on February 20, 2025, after the market closes. According to InvestingPro analysis, HPP appears undervalued based on its Fair Value calculation, with 14 additional key insights available to subscribers.

Catherwood's revised estimates take into account several factors impacting Hudson (NYSE:HUD) Pacific's operations, with the company's market capitalization now at $404 million. These include a reduction in studio production due to recent wildfires in Los Angeles, a decrease in average office occupancy, and an increase in interest expenses. The company maintains a current ratio of 1.32, indicating sufficient liquidity to meet short-term obligations. Consequently, the firm's full-year 2025 funds from operations (FFO) per share estimate has been reduced by $0.22 to $0.37. InvestingPro subscribers can access detailed financial health metrics and comprehensive analysis through the exclusive Pro Research Report, one of 1,400+ available for top US stocks.

The analyst noted that they had initially modeled a gradual recovery for HPP's studio segment in the first half of 2025, which was expected to gain momentum in the latter part of the year as California's expanded film and television tax credits took effect. However, due to the disruptions caused by the wildfires, the projected contribution from the studio platform has been scaled back, with the forecasted studio net operating income (NOI) for the full year reduced by $14.5 million to $13.5 million.

In terms of office space, Hudson Pacific has exceeded the vacancy leasing target of 250,000 square feet per quarter set at the beginning of 2024, having signed 951,000 square feet in the first nine months. Despite this performance, Catherwood anticipates the gap between space leased and space occupied to widen throughout 2025, as lease commencements are expected to take longer. This has led to a reduction in the average occupancy forecast by 110 basis points to 75.6% and a decrease in NOI margins by 130 basis points to 55.0%. The combined effect has resulted in a lowered office NOI by $13.7 million to $371.2 million.

The potential commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) financing mentioned by management in the third-quarter call is now assumed to close at the end of the first quarter of 2025. While it is expected to address maturing debts, the higher interest rates have increased the projected interest expense by $4.5 million for the year.

Despite the downward revision in earnings expectations, BTIG maintains a positive outlook on Hudson Pacific's shares for 2025. The firm's investment thesis is based on an anticipated office occupancy inflection in 2025, the company's options to manage near-term debt maturities, and a potential recovery in commercial real estate values that would underscore the disparity between HPP's share price and the value of its assets. With a price-to-book ratio of 0.16 and significant free cash flow yield, InvestingPro data suggests compelling valuation metrics despite the stock's 61% decline over the past year. BTIG expects to see progress on these fronts during the upcoming earnings call and believes the market will eventually recognize the increase in institutional capital targeting West Coast office deals. Hudson Pacific's current share price suggests a valuation of $270 per square foot for its office buildings, which represents a 31% discount to the $390 per square foot value in BTIG's asset-by-asset net asset value (NAV) calculation, despite the company's recent asset sales closing at an average of $272 per square foot. The new price target of $10 aligns with BTIG's NAV estimate.

In other recent news, Hudson Pacific Properties, Inc. has made significant strides in its ongoing strategy to divest non-essential assets. The company has successfully finalized the sale of Maxwell, a non-core office property in the Los Angeles Arts District, for $46.0 million. This is part of a broader divestiture plan that has seen Hudson Pacific shed $93.8 million in non-core assets since mid-November of the previous year.

In addition to these developments, the company has confirmed that its Los Angeles office properties and studio facilities are operational and unaffected following an unspecified event. The company's Chairman and CEO, Victor Coleman, expressed relief that the company's employees are safe and its assets remain intact.

In the meantime, global investment banking firm Jefferies has revised its price target for Hudson Pacific Properties, lowering it to $3.70 from the previous $5.00, but maintaining a Hold rating on the stock. This adjustment comes amid ongoing office occupancy challenges, particularly in tech-centric West Coast markets. Despite these challenges, Hudson Pacific Properties continues to showcase its Washington 1000 development in Seattle to prospective tenants.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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