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On Wednesday, BTIG analysts upheld their Buy rating and $81.00 price target for Moonlake Immunotherapeutics (NASDAQ:MLTX), representing significant upside from the current price of $39.65. According to InvestingPro data, analysts are broadly bullish on the stock, with price targets ranging from $65 to $104. The analysts are optimistic about Moonlake’s drug candidate, sonelokimab (SLK), following lackluster Phase 3 results for a competing drug, povorcitinib, in treating Hidradenitis Suppurativa (HS). They believe these results have positioned SLK favorably in the market as the leading advanced treatment option, with Phase 3 VELA data anticipated by mid-2025.
The analysts noted that povorcitinib’s placebo-corrected HiSCR50 rates, which ranged between 11-14% at 12 weeks, did not meet the efficacy levels typically associated with the IL-17 class of drugs. In contrast, SLK demonstrated a 38% efficacy rate at the same time point during the Phase 2b MIRA trial. Additionally, when comparing HiSCR75 rates, SLK’s performance in the MIRA trial was significantly stronger (29% versus 9-15% for povorcitinib).
The BTIG team also commented on the STOP-HS1/HS2 results for povorcitinib, developed by Incyte (NASDAQ:INCY) Corporation, suggesting that while the drug may receive approval, its efficacy concerns and JAK-related safety issues could limit its use to later lines of treatment. With a market capitalization of $2.51 billion and a strong balance sheet showing more cash than debt, Moonlake appears well-positioned to continue its drug development programs. InvestingPro analysis reveals the company maintains exceptional liquidity with a current ratio of 21.11. Furthermore, they compared povorcitinib to AbbVie (NYSE:ABBV)’s JAK inhibitor upadacitinib (Rinvoq), which is also undergoing Phase 3 trials for HS, and speculated that upadacitinib might exhibit a similarly modest efficacy profile in HS.
Moonlake Immunotherapeutics is expected to present a Capital Markets Update in the second quarter of 2025, where analysts anticipate updates on the VELA program and a review of SLK’s potential as a pipeline-in-a-product. The analysts concluded that the efficacy threshold for SLK to become the preferred advanced treatment for HS appears to be attainably low, reinforcing their positive outlook on Moonlake’s stock. Based on InvestingPro’s Fair Value analysis, the stock is currently trading near its fair value. Investors seeking deeper insights can access comprehensive financial health metrics and 10+ additional ProTips through InvestingPro’s detailed research report.
In other recent news, Moonlake Immunotherapeutics has received continued support from analysts following recent developments. Guggenheim Securities reaffirmed their Buy rating and $80 price target, highlighting the promising results from the company’s sonelokimab in clinical trials. Sonelokimab, an IL-17A/F dual-targeting nanobody, showed a 29% placebo-adjusted HiSCR-75 in its Phase IIb MIRA study, which Guggenheim believes positions it as a potential leader in treating hidradenitis suppurativa. Cowen analysts also maintained their Buy rating, expressing confidence in sonelokimab’s potential to penetrate the market for inflammatory diseases such as hidradenitis suppurativa and psoriatic arthritis. Cowen projects that sonelokimab could achieve peak revenues exceeding $4 billion following its anticipated launch in 2027. The pivotal trial results for sonelokimab in treating hidradenitis suppurativa are expected in mid-2025, providing further insight into its efficacy and safety. Both Guggenheim and Cowen have recognized Moonlake Immunotherapeutics as a strong investment opportunity, with Cowen naming it a "Europe Best Idea." Moonlake Immunotherapeutics plans to provide additional clinical data and financial updates during a Capital Markets Update in the second quarter of 2025.
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