BTIG raises AtriCure stock price target to $58, maintains buy

On Thursday, BTIG analyst Marie Thibault adjusted the price target for AtriCure Inc. (NASDAQ:ATRC) stock, increasing it slightly from $57.00 to $58.00, while reaffirming a Buy rating. According to InvestingPro data, analyst targets range from $45 to $66, with a strong consensus recommendation of 1.44 (Buy), though 4 analysts have recently revised their earnings expectations downward. The adjustment came after Thibault’s attendance at AtriCure’s Investor Day held at the company’s headquarters in Mason, OH. During the event, AtriCure’s management outlined their long-term financial goals, aiming for approximately $750 million in annual revenue by 2028 with an adjusted EBITDA margin around 14%. By 2030, they anticipate reaching $1 billion in annual revenue and an adjusted EBITDA margin exceeding 20%.

The company confirmed that there would be no changes to its 2025 guidance. The revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is projected to be approximately 12.7% from 2024 to 2028, with an acceleration to around 15.5% from 2028 to 2030. These projections align with the company’s historical performance, as InvestingPro data shows a robust 16.55% revenue growth in the last twelve months and a 15% 5-year CAGR. The company maintains a healthy gross profit margin of 74.69% and operates with a moderate debt level. This growth is expected to be driven by efforts such as expanding indications for prophylactic use of concomitant cardiac ablation and clinical trial data from the LeAAPS study.

AtriCure’s 2028 revenue target slightly exceeded BTIG’s expectations, which were around a 12.5% growth rate. Moreover, the profitability goals set by AtriCure surpassed the forecasts previously held by the firm. At the Investor Day, insights were shared by leading cardiac surgeons on the design, rationale, and market opportunity for the LeAAPS and BoxX-NO AF trials. Discussions also covered the role of Converge in the evolving endocardial ablation market, particularly with the advent of pulsed field ablation (PFA).

BTIG recognizes the significant market expansion opportunity for AtriCure, especially in the prophylactic setting, which targets a large, high-risk population that has been historically overlooked. The firm also anticipates that Converge, as the only proven therapy to improve outcomes in long-standing persistent atrial fibrillation (AF), will stabilize and eventually return to growth.

The visit to AtriCure’s facility included product demonstrations and discussions with engineers and clinical support representatives across various product segments. Thibault’s experience reinforced the belief that AtriCure’s long-term targets are well-founded, considering the new product catalysts and upcoming clinical trial readouts. InvestingPro analysis indicates the company’s strong financial health with a current ratio of 3.65, suggesting ample liquidity to fund its growth initiatives. Subscribers to InvestingPro can access detailed financial health scores and 6 additional ProTips that provide deeper insights into AtriCure’s investment potential. After reviewing the company’s estimates and applying a consistent 4.5x enterprise value-to-sales (EV/Sales) multiple on the 12-24 month revenue forecast, BTIG decided to nudge the price target up by $1, reaffirming their positive outlook on AtriCure’s stock.

In other recent news, AtriCure Inc. reported its fourth-quarter 2024 earnings, revealing a 16.6% year-over-year revenue increase to $124.3 million, surpassing expectations. However, the company posted a larger-than-expected loss per share of $0.33, missing the forecast of $0.20. AtriCure’s U.S. sales rose by 14.8%, while international sales surged by 25.6%. Looking ahead, the company projects 2025 revenue between $517 million and $527 million, indicating an 11-13% growth. Analyst firms, including BTIG and JMP Securities, maintain a positive outlook, with BTIG raising the price target to $57 and JMP Securities reaffirming a $60 target. AtriCure’s adjusted EBITDA for 2025 is expected to be between $42 million and $44 million, reflecting operational improvements. The company continues to focus on product innovation and market expansion, with several new product launches and FDA approvals for clinical trials. These developments are anticipated to drive further growth and profitability for AtriCure in the coming years.

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