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On Wednesday, Cantor Fitzgerald maintained a Neutral stance on Lucid Group Inc . (NASDAQ:LCID), with a consistent price target of $3.00. Currently trading at $2.33, InvestingPro data suggests the stock is fairly valued. The firm’s analyst, Andres Sheppard, adjusted the forecast for the electric vehicle manufacturer, citing revised delivery estimates and financial projections. Recent data shows the company’s revenue grew 35.7% in the last twelve months, though InvestingPro analysis indicates the company is quickly burning through cash.
Sheppard noted a reduction in the expected vehicle deliveries for fiscal year 2025, decreasing the number to 17,000 from the previous estimate of 18,000. Additionally, the forecast for the Lucid Gravity model deliveries for the same fiscal year has been lowered to 6,064 units, down from the former projection of 7,731 units. These revisions lead to a decrease in projected FY25 revenue, now set at $1,432.2 million, a drop from the initial $1,616.3 million estimate. Current financial metrics support this cautious outlook, with the company reporting a concerning gross profit margin of -114.27% and significant negative EBITDA of -$2.7 billion.
The analysis further includes a downward adjustment for fiscal year 2026 vehicle deliveries, now anticipated to be 34,160, marking a decrease from the earlier estimate of 42,700. This change results in a lowered revenue forecast for FY26, now expected to be $2,963.5 million, compared to the previous figure of $3,675 million. The firm also reduced the FY27 Gross Margin estimate to 7%, a conservative figure compared to the prior 15% estimate.
The $3.00 price target is derived from a detailed 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. The model assumes a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 11% and a terminal value that incorporates a 2% long-term growth rate.
Sheppard highlighted several key risks that could impact Lucid’s performance, including high negative gross margins, the potential implementation of new tariffs, the possibility of the electric vehicle tax credit being revoked, ongoing supply chain disruptions, manufacturing constraints, a highly competitive market, and slower-than-anticipated customer adoption rates. These concerns are reflected in InvestingPro’s comprehensive analysis, which shows a Fair Financial Health score and reveals that while the company holds more cash than debt, it maintains a concerning negative free cash flow yield. For deeper insights into Lucid’s financial health and future prospects, investors can access the detailed Pro Research Report, available exclusively to InvestingPro subscribers.
In other recent news, Lucid Group Inc. reported mixed financial results for the first quarter of 2025. The company’s earnings per share (EPS) showed a loss of $0.20, which was better than analysts’ forecasts of a $0.23 loss. However, Lucid’s revenue of $235 million fell short of expectations, missing the consensus estimate of $246.01 million. The company delivered 3,109 vehicles, a 58% increase compared to the previous year, but the revenue per unit was lower than anticipated. Lucid ended the quarter with $4.56 billion in cash and investments. Bank of America maintained its Underperform rating on Lucid with a price target of $1.00, highlighting the company’s ongoing challenges. Despite these financial hurdles, Lucid is pursuing strategic initiatives, such as launching the Lucid Gravity and exploring technology partnerships. The company also completed a private offering of convertible senior notes, raising $1.1 billion, which was used to repurchase $1.0 billion of its existing notes.
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