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On Monday, Cantor Fitzgerald reaffirmed its neutral stance on ASML Inc. (NASDAQ:ASML), maintaining a price target of $900.00 for the semiconductor company. The stock, currently trading at $680.26, sits near its 52-week low of $645.45, while InvestingPro analysis indicates the company is fairly valued at current levels. The research firm's analysts expect ASML to confirm its CY25 target model, despite concerns over potential order deferrals from Samsung (KS:005930). The analysts have gathered information suggesting a significant portion of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography system shipments initially planned for 2025 has been deferred to 2026. According to their checks, Samsung is now expected to receive only six EUV tools in 2025, with the risk of a decrease in immersion tool orders as well.
The Cantor Fitzgerald analysts believe that the downside risk for ASML's orders from Samsung is limited to approximately €500 million, which is relatively small compared to their current financial model projections. They anticipate that any negative impact from Samsung could be offset by increased business from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) and domestic Chinese semiconductor firms. With a robust gross profit margin of 51.15% and strong return on equity of 49%, ASML maintains significant financial flexibility to navigate market challenges. As a result, the analysts project ASML to reiterate the midpoint of its 2025 guidance, which suggests a higher risk for CY25 estimates as they model €32.7 billion in revenue and €24.25 in earnings per share compared to the consensus of €31.9 billion and €23.17, respectively.
The Cantor Fitzgerald team also highlighted that bookings could be a source of volatility, forecasting them to be in the range of €3.0 to €3.5 billion, which they consider satisfactory. InvestingPro subscribers can access 13 additional key insights about ASML, including its 18-year dividend payment track record and strong cash flow metrics. Despite the neutral rating, the analysts underscored that ASML remains a top pick within the semiconductor production equipment (SPE) sector, with their price target implying a significant upside potential, aligned with the company's solid financial health score of GOOD from InvestingPro's comprehensive analysis.
In other recent news, ASML Holding NV (AS:ASML) has been the subject of various financial adjustments and revised forecasts. Bernstein analysts, led by Sara Russo, raised their price target for ASML from $767.00 to $887.00, maintaining an Outperform rating. The revision is based on solid revenue expectations for the fourth quarter and full year of 2024, supported by robust EUV growth and sustained demand from China. BofA Securities, on the other hand, reduced ASML's price target to €803 from the previous €870, while maintaining a Buy rating. This reflects a cautious stance towards the company's future revenue and earnings projections.
BNP Paribas (OTC:BNPQY) Exane reinstated coverage on ASML with an Outperform rating and a price target of EUR 817.00, emphasizing the company's strong position in the semiconductor industry. Jefferies also maintained a positive stance, increasing the price target for ASML stock amid anticipated demand surge for its Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems.
Cantor Fitzgerald reaffirmed its Overweight rating on ASML shares, with expectations from the upcoming Capital Markets Day and expressing confidence in ASML's 2025 financial targets. However, Erste Group revised its rating from "Buy" to "Hold" after ASML reported a substantial decline in new orders and a downward adjustment of its 2025 revenue forecast. These are the recent developments in ASML's financial trajectory.
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