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On Friday, Cantor Fitzgerald initiated coverage on MongoDB (NASDAQ:MDB), a leader in the NoSQL database market. The firm assigned an Overweight rating to the company's stock, accompanied by a price target of $344.00. Currently trading at $247.96, MongoDB has a market capitalization of $18.47 billion.
The company's core product, the cloud-native MongoDB Atlas (NYSE:ATCO), accounts for 71% of the company's total revenue in the third quarter of fiscal year 2025, ending in January. According to InvestingPro data, MongoDB maintains impressive gross profit margins of 73.86%.
The firm addressed some confusion among investors regarding MongoDB’s recent developments.
These include evaluations of the company’s go-to-market strategy, the strength of its Enterprise Advanced (EA) business, which is not cloud/Atlas related, and approximately $80 million in revenue recognized in fiscal year 2024 that is not expected to recur in fiscal year 2025, affecting growth metrics.
The firm also noted that year-over-year margin comparisons are impacted by the non-recurring revenue and the higher incremental margins of the EA business in the previous fiscal year.
Cantor Fitzgerald believes that these dynamics have led to lower valuation multiples for MongoDB’s shares and have contributed to a negative narrative about the company's competitive position and growth prospects. However, the firm sees this as an opportunity, suggesting that the market sentiment is overly negative.
They highlight improvements in normalized growth for credits and year-over-year dollar additions for Atlas. Additionally, changes in the go-to-market approach could potentially enhance the quality of workloads, which may positively influence near-term growth.
The report also mentions strong consumption trends, particularly in artificial intelligence, anticipated into the first half of calendar year 2025. This could drive mid-20% revenue growth for the fiscal year 2025, which is higher than the 17% growth projected by the Street.
Cantor Fitzgerald's Overweight rating and price target are informed by these factors and a strong risk-reward skew of 3.5:1. The $344 price target implies a 10x multiple on the company's projected calendar year 2026 revenue, aligning with MongoDB’s one-year average.
In other recent news, MongoDB has seen several significant developments. Guggenheim recently upgraded MongoDB shares from Neutral to Buy, setting a $300 price target based on a discounted cash flow analysis. Guggenheim anticipates MongoDB's total revenue guidance for FY26 to reflect a conservative 15% growth rate, potentially performing better than FY24.
In addition, MongoDB has issued shares and redeemed convertible notes, aligning with the company's financial strategies and offering note holders an opportunity to convert their debt holdings into equity. MongoDB issued 5,662,979 shares of its common stock in this process.
Several analyst firms have also provided their perspectives on MongoDB. Tigress Financial Partners maintained a Buy rating, raising its price target to $430.00, backed by MongoDB's scalable architecture and business performance trends. In contrast, Monness, Crespi, Hardt downgraded MongoDB's shares to Sell, citing a slowdown in growth for MongoDB Atlas and the recent resignation of the CFO. Macquarie initiated coverage on MongoDB with a Neutral rating and a price target of $300, acknowledging the company's appeal among developers, particularly for AI applications.
The third quarter of 2025 saw MongoDB report a 22% year-over-year increase in revenue, reaching $529.4 million. This growth was consistent across its subscription revenue, which also rose by 22% to $512.2 million, and its services revenue, which saw an 18% increase to $17.2 million. MongoDB recently announced the release of MongoDB 8.0, featuring 45 architectural improvements expected to bring performance enhancements, cost reductions, and additional scalability, resilience, and data security features.
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