Carlyle Group price target lowered to $77 by TD Cowen on timing concerns

Investing.com - TD Cowen has reduced its price target on The Carlyle Group LP (NASDAQ:CG) to $77.00 from $78.00 while maintaining a Buy rating following the company’s third-quarter earnings miss. The alternative asset manager, currently trading at $52.03, appears undervalued according to InvestingPro Fair Value metrics.

The investment firm described the approximately 6% stock price decline on October 31 as "overdone," noting that the core long-term investment thesis for Carlyle remains intact despite the disappointing quarterly results. This view aligns with broader analyst sentiment, as the consensus recommendation stands at 2.12 (moderate buy), with price targets ranging from $50 to $78.

TD Cowen indicated that the earnings miss was more related to "realization timing" rather than fundamental issues that would undermine the overall investment case for the alternative asset manager.

The research firm’s revised estimates now sit below consensus for 2025-2026, with an initial 2027 earnings estimate of $5.24 per share, suggesting potential negative revision risk despite rising markets.

TD Cowen’s new $77 price target represents approximately 16.5 times the firm’s initial 2027 earnings estimate on a discounted basis, with analysts expressing progressive bullishness on realization activity throughout their forecast period. Carlyle currently trades at a P/E ratio of 29.93, with a market capitalization of $18.69 billion.

In other recent news, The Carlyle Group announced robust financial results for the third quarter of 2025. The firm’s distributable earnings reached $368 million, translating to $0.96 per share. Year-to-date, distributable earnings saw a 10% increase year-over-year, totaling $1.3 billion or $3.04 per share. Additionally, the company reported notable growth in fee-related earnings and total fee revenue. These developments underscore Carlyle Group’s strong financial performance during this period. The company did not experience any significant stock price movement following these announcements. Analysts have not provided any recent upgrades or downgrades for Carlyle Group. These updates reflect the company’s current financial standing and operational progress.

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