CF Industries stock downgraded by BofA Securities on ammonia deflation concerns

Published 14/08/2025, 12:00
CF Industries stock downgraded by BofA Securities on ammonia deflation concerns

Investing.com - BofA Securities downgraded CF Industries (NYSE:CF) stock rating from Neutral to Underperform on Thursday, while lowering its price target to $82.00 from $93.00. The $14 billion fertilizer manufacturer, currently trading at $86.42, maintains a healthy 2.31% dividend yield and trades at a P/E ratio of 11.3x.

The downgrade reflects BofA’s expectation that ammonia deflation will create headwinds for urea, a key product for CF Industries. The firm noted that integrated ammonia-urea producers will likely maximize urea production, while European nitrates players will benefit from lower costs on merchant ammonia purchases.

BofA Securities projects urea supply to grow at approximately 2% CAGR, primarily driven by China. The firm considers this growth rate significant against a backdrop of potentially lower demand resulting from impaired farmer profit.

The research firm expressed concerns that falling Chinese operating rates could increase the risk of higher export quotas, as fulfilling domestic demand becomes easier. BofA suggested Chinese producers might be slow to rationalize capacity if granted more export access, unless urea markets soften.

CF Industries, a major manufacturer of nitrogen fertilizers, faces these market pressures as the global fertilizer industry navigates changing supply-demand dynamics and regional cost advantages.

In other recent news, CF Industries reported its second-quarter financial results, revealing earnings per share of $2.37, which fell short of the $2.40 consensus projected by analysts. However, the company’s revenue exceeded expectations, reaching $1.89 billion, compared to the anticipated $1.78 billion, and marking a 20% increase from the previous year’s $1.57 billion. Barclays upgraded CF Industries to an Overweight rating, citing the company’s low-carbon benefits in its Ammonia segment, with a revised price target of $100.00. Wells Fargo also adjusted its price target for CF Industries, raising it to $108.00 while maintaining an Overweight rating. The bank noted that the company’s second-quarter performance was impacted by unplanned turnarounds and higher SG&A costs, which are expected to reverse later in the year. However, third-quarter results may still be affected by planned turnarounds. These developments provide investors with insights into CF Industries’ recent activities and future prospects.

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