CFRA cuts Dollar General price target to $84, maintains hold

Published 13/03/2025, 15:28
CFRA cuts Dollar General price target to $84, maintains hold

On Thursday, CFRA analyst Arun Sundaram adjusted the price target for Dollar General (NYSE: DG) shares, reducing it to $84 from the previous $103, while continuing to recommend a Hold rating on the stock. The $17.6 billion retailer, currently trading at $80.27, appears undervalued according to InvestingPro Fair Value metrics. The revision follows the company’s fourth-quarter financial results for fiscal year 2025, which ended in January. Dollar General reported a modest increase in same-store sales of 1.2%, slightly above the 0.9% consensus and just under the 1.3% growth seen in the third quarter of the fiscal year.[Discover 6 more exclusive InvestingPro Tips and comprehensive valuation metrics with InvestingPro]

Despite the increase in same-store sales, Dollar General experienced a decline in customer traffic by 1.1% compared to a 0.3% increase in the previous quarter. However, the average transaction amount showed a positive trend, rising by 2.3%, which is an improvement from the 1.1% growth observed in the third quarter. The company maintains a 2.9% revenue growth rate and offers a 3.15% dividend yield, providing some stability for income-focused investors.

Looking ahead, Dollar General has outlined plans to close 96 of its namesake stores and 45 pOpshelf stores within the first quarter of fiscal year 2026. These closures represent less than 1% of the company’s total store base. Nonetheless, Dollar General remains on track to open 575 new stores during FY26 and aims for a long-term unit growth of over 2%.

The company has also reported stabilizing gross margins, attributing the improvement to measures taken to reduce shrink, such as the elimination of self-checkout lanes and increased staffing at stores. These efforts appear to be yielding results, with the company’s shares rising in pre-market trading following the announcement of its long-term financial goals.

Dollar General has set ambitious targets, aiming for a 10% or higher growth in earnings per share (EPS) by fiscal year 2027. Additionally, the company expects operating margins to return to their historical range of 6% to 7% by fiscal years 2029 to 2030, addressing previous concerns regarding the possibility of permanently higher operating costs.

In other recent news, Dollar General Corporation (NYSE:DG) reported its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings, exceeding market expectations. The company achieved an earnings per share (EPS) of $1.68, surpassing the forecasted $1.50. Revenue for the quarter reached $10.3 billion, slightly above the anticipated $10.26 billion, marking a 4.5% year-over-year increase. The company also noted a 1.2% rise in same-store sales, with a 2.3% increase in average transaction amounts. Additionally, Dollar General plans to significantly expand its delivery services by the end of 2025. In terms of analyst perspectives, the company’s strategic initiatives and robust financial performance have been positively received, with firms like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) highlighting the company’s efforts to optimize inventory and improve store conditions. Dollar General’s long-term financial framework includes targeting annual sales growth of 3.5% to 4% and operating margin expansion to 6-7% by 2028. The company has also undertaken a portfolio optimization review, resulting in the closure of 96 Dollar General stores and 51 Pop Shelf locations to better allocate resources.

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