Bullish indicating open at $55-$60, IPO prices at $37
Investing.com - CFRA downgraded MP Materials (NYSE:MP) from Strong Buy to Buy while simultaneously raising its price target to $88.00 from $68.00. The stock, currently trading at $75.06, has shown remarkable momentum with a 567% return over the past year and is trading near its 52-week high of $79.36, according to InvestingPro data.
The research firm increased its 12-month target by $20, applying an EV/EBITDA multiple of 23.0x to its new pro forma EBITDA estimate of $850 million, up from the previous estimate of $650 million.
CFRA now expects MP Materials to achieve this higher EBITDA level by 2028 or 2029, citing increased confidence following the company’s Q2 earnings conference call.
The updated EBITDA projection accounts for commercial sales from MP’s 10X facility and additional NdPr products from heavy rare earths, though CFRA noted this could prove conservative if NdPr prices rise significantly above the $110/kg floor guaranteed by the Department of Defense.
CFRA also narrowed its 2025 loss per share estimate for MP Materials by $0.10 to $0.36, while maintaining its earnings per share estimates for 2026 and 2027.
In other recent news, MP Materials reported its financial results for the second quarter of 2025, which exceeded market expectations. The company achieved an earnings per share (EPS) of -$0.13, outperforming the forecasted -$0.20, representing a 35% earnings surprise. Revenue was also higher than anticipated, reaching $57.39 million compared to the expected $46.67 million, marking a 22.97% revenue surprise. Additionally, TD Cowen raised its price target for MP Materials from $55 to $80 while maintaining a Buy rating. This adjustment follows the company’s strong performance in the second quarter, highlighting robust upstream volumes and reliability in refining operations. The sales pipeline for neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) is also gaining traction, contributing to the optimistic outlook. These developments reflect recent progress and strategic advancements by MP Materials.
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