Bullish indicating open at $55-$60, IPO prices at $37
On Monday, RBC Capital Markets adjusted its outlook on Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG) shares, lowering the price target to $65 from the previous $70, while maintaining an Outperform rating on the stock. The revision follows a new set of evaluations of the restaurant chain’s limited-time chipotle honey chicken (CHC) offering. According to InvestingPro data, Chipotle maintains strong financial health with a "GREAT" overall score, despite trading at premium multiples. The company has demonstrated solid revenue growth of ~15% over the last twelve months.
Logan Reich of RBC Capital conducted the research, which involved visiting 32 different Chipotle locations to gauge the performance of the CHC against previous offerings. The findings suggested a slight decline in enthusiasm compared to the checks performed on March 23. Despite the dip, the analyst believes that the CHC is still performing at least as well as anticipated.
The recent checks indicated that the CHC remains more popular than last year’s limited-time offering, the al pastor. However, the margin of its popularity decreased, with the proportion of locations reporting the CHC as more popular than less popular falling to 7.4%, a drop from 18.4% in the March findings.
Moreover, the percentage of locations that perceived the CHC as driving additional customer traffic also declined. In the latest round of checks, 68% of the sample believed that the new menu item was bringing in more customers, compared to 75% who believed so in the previous month.
RBC Capital’s continued Outperform rating reflects a positive outlook on Chipotle’s stock, despite the minor adjustments in customer response to the CHC offering. The firm’s analysis suggests that while there may be a slight shift in customer preferences, the overall impact on traffic appears to be stable. With a market capitalization of $66.8 billion, Chipotle commands premium valuation multiples, reflecting market confidence in its business model. For deeper insights into Chipotle’s valuation metrics and comprehensive analysis, investors can access the full financial health report through InvestingPro, which offers exclusive access to over 30 key financial metrics and expert insights.
In other recent news, Chipotle Mexican Grill has received attention from multiple analyst firms regarding its stock ratings and future prospects. RBC Capital Markets maintained its Outperform rating with a $70 price target, citing Chipotle’s strong growth drivers and the potential for increased customer traffic due to its new limited-time offering, the Chipotle Honey Chicken. Meanwhile, Stifel adjusted its price target for Chipotle shares to $65 from $68, maintaining a Buy rating. Stifel analysts anticipate challenges in the first quarter but expect improvements in the second quarter, driven by the popularity of the Chipotle Honey Chicken and enhancements in restaurant operations.
Oppenheimer also maintained an Outperform rating with a $66 price target, noting the stock’s recent decline but expressing optimism for a more favorable situation in the second half of 2025. Analysts from Oppenheimer suggest that potential tariff impacts on earnings per share would be minimal. Additionally, Chipotle’s efforts to innovate and improve operational efficiency are highlighted as part of its strategy to boost market position. These developments reflect a cautious yet optimistic outlook from analysts on Chipotle’s ability to navigate current challenges and capitalize on growth opportunities.
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