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Investing.com - Tiger Securities lowered its price target on Circle Internet Group (NYSE:CRCL) to $140 from $180 while maintaining a Hold rating, citing lower projected reserve income despite growing stablecoin circulation. The stock, currently trading at $131.47 with a market capitalization of $30.27 billion, is showing signs of being slightly overvalued according to InvestingPro analysis.
The firm noted that average USDC in circulation reached $67.9 billion in the third quarter of 2025, up 11% quarter-over-quarter from $61.0 billion in the second quarter. The quarter-end balance stood at $73.9 billion, representing a 21% quarterly increase from $61.3 billion, which Tiger Securities attributed to increased institutional adoption and a moderate cryptocurrency market rebound. With the company’s next earnings report scheduled for November 12, InvestingPro data reveals an impressive projected revenue growth of 57% for fiscal year 2025.
USDC’s market share expanded from 27.5% to 28.9% during the third quarter, while USDT’s share declined from 70.8% to 68.3%. Tiger Securities continues to model USDC’s market share reaching above 31% by 2026, supported by its position as the largest compliant digital dollar.
On the yield side, the average 3-month U.S. Treasury yield was 4.20% in the third quarter, down 13 basis points from the previous quarter. The firm modeled Circle’s reserve return rate at 4.03%, translating to reserve income of $684 million, up 8% quarter-over-quarter.
Tiger Securities revised its 2026 estimates, increasing average USDC circulation forecast by 6% but lowering the year-end reserve return rate by 35 basis points, resulting in a 4% lower reserve income estimate. The firm views the stock as fairly valued at current levels, trading at approximately 50 times revised 2026 estimated EBITDA. Additional metrics from InvestingPro show the company trading at a Price/Book ratio of 13.16, with a notably thin gross profit margin of 4.12%. Subscribers can access 12 more exclusive ProTips and a comprehensive analysis of Circle Internet Group’s financial health.
In other recent news, Circle Internet Group has been the focus of several analyst assessments and strategic developments. Clear Street initiated coverage of Circle Internet Group with a Hold rating, setting a price target of $135.00. This evaluation is based on a projected 36x EV/2027 EBITDA for the company, which issues USDC, a prominent stablecoin. Meanwhile, Bernstein SocGen has reiterated its Outperform rating for Circle, with a more optimistic price target of $230.00, despite investor concerns about new competition and potential interest rate cuts affecting float income.
In addition to analyst ratings, Circle Internet Group announced a strategic partnership with Safe, a multisig-based smart account platform, to enhance USDC self-custody solutions. This collaboration aims to position Safe as a leading institutional storage solution for USDC, with $2.5 billion currently held in Safe smart accounts. Furthermore, Rothschild Redburn initiated coverage of Circle Internet Group with a Neutral rating and a $136.00 price target, highlighting the company’s significant role in the stablecoin market. These developments come amid broader market movements, with Bitcoin-linked stocks, including Circle Internet, experiencing declines due to rising US-China trade tensions.
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