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On Monday, Citi analysts revised the price target for InterGlobe Aviation Ltd. (INDIGO:IN), the operator of IndiGo airlines, to INR 5,100 from the previous INR 5,300. Despite this reduction, the firm maintained its Buy rating on the stock. The adjustment follows the announcement of the company's third-quarter financial year 2025 (3QFY25) results, which exceeded expectations, driven by strong demand and performance in November and December.
IndiGo's recent financial report indicated robust traffic growth and yield, supported by the high demand in the last two months of the quarter. The management's guidance for the fourth quarter of FY25 (4QFY25) suggests a year-over-year (YoY) increase of 20% in Available Seat Kilometers (ASK), which is a measure of flight capacity. However, they also forecast a low-single-digit decline in yield YoY, considering the high base from the previous year.
The airline is poised to benefit from the reintroduction of previously grounded aircraft and the rapid expansion of its network both domestically and internationally. These factors are expected to bolster revenue growth. Nevertheless, Citi analysts pointed out that the steep depreciation of the Indian Rupee against the US Dollar is likely to result in significant mark-to-market (MTM) losses for the airline.
Despite the analysts increasing their revenue estimates slightly, they have significantly cut their earnings estimates for IndiGo. The airline is reportedly engaging in foreign exchange hedges and implementing other measures to mitigate the impact of currency fluctuations. Citi's continued endorsement of a Buy rating is based on the strength of IndiGo's demand and market share trends. The valuation of InterGlobe Aviation remains at 2.6 times the projected FY26 enterprise value to sales ratio, even as the target price has been adjusted to INR 5,100.
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