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On Tuesday, Citi analysts, led by Nicholas Herman, adjusted the price target for Bridgepoint Group PLC (BPT:LN) shares to £3.60, down from £4.10, while maintaining a Buy rating on the company’s stock. The revision reflects a more challenging economic environment, yet the firm’s outlook on the stock remains positive.
Bridgepoint, known for focusing on mid-market companies, could be vulnerable in an economic downturn. However, Citi’s analysts believe that the company will not face significant downgrades to its fee-related earnings (FRE). They cite three main reasons for this outlook: mid-market companies usually experience steadier deal flows, there’s no expectation for investment periods to extend significantly beyond the current roughly four-year cycle, and the analysts are confident in Bridgepoint’s ability to increase fund sizes by 20-25% due to strong performance and the relatively smaller size of its funds.
The analysts also highlighted the company’s strong position in infrastructure investment, which they see as a unique offering to limited partners (LPs), especially as a power provider to hyper scalers that support the growing artificial intelligence boom. According to Citi’s estimates, Bridgepoint’s shares are trading at an attractive price, with an 8x average forward-year 2025-2028 estimated FRE multiple, which is considered highly discounted.
The new price target of £3.60 implies an average FRE multiple of 16x over the same period and suggests a 46% expected total return (ETR). This assessment indicates that, despite the reduced price target, Citi analysts still see significant growth potential in Bridgepoint Group’s stock, underpinned by conservative consensus estimates and promising fundraising guidance.
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