Citi cuts SentinelOne stock target to $21 on mixed results

Published 13/03/2025, 13:50
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On Thursday, SentinelOne Inc (NYSE: S) shares received a revised price target from Citi, with analysts lowering it to $21.00 from the previous $27.00, while maintaining a Neutral rating on the stock. According to InvestingPro data, analyst targets for SentinelOne currently range from $18 to $36, with the stock trading at $19.30 after declining nearly 31% over the past year. The adjustment follows SentinelOne’s recent financial performance, which included a modest revenue beat and healthy operating margin upside but was counterbalanced by in-line Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) and Net New ARR, along with a Free Cash Flow (FCF) miss.

The company’s first-quarter and full-year 2026 outlooks were notably below market consensus, disappointing investors, particularly as these expectations had already been significantly reduced. InvestingPro analysis shows the company maintains strong fundamentals with a healthy current ratio of 1.63 and more cash than debt on its balance sheet. Despite current challenges, analysts project profitability this year, marking a potential turning point for the company. Citi’s Fatima Boolani pointed out that after adjusting for a $10 million SKU End-of-Life (EOL) in ARR, the Net New ARR growth and FY26E Net New ARR outlook appear more favorable. However, the F1Q26E revenue, adjusted for revenue recognition days, only adds about a 1% benefit, which may increase frustration due to the surprising and untelegraphed decision, despite it being considered in the fourth-quarter 2025 guidance.

Boolani noted several positive aspects, such as re-acceleration in Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO), strong additions of $100K+ net new customers, and a majority non-endpoint bookings mix valued at approximately four times the Enterprise Value to Sales (EV/S) for the second half of 2026 after hours. These "greenshoots" are intriguing, but Boolani remains cautious, citing the need for improved sales productivity in an uncertain macroeconomic environment, untested market reception to upcoming pricing and packaging changes, and the need for better new business and market displacement momentum.

In light of these factors, Citi has tweaked its model for SentinelOne, with the terminal multiple being lowered, leading to the new price target of $21. This reflects the firm’s neutral stance on the stock’s potential to move beyond its current range, given the challenges and uncertainties ahead. Based on InvestingPro’s comprehensive Fair Value analysis, SentinelOne appears fairly valued at current levels. For deeper insights into SentinelOne’s valuation and growth prospects, including exclusive ProTips and detailed financial metrics, investors can access the full Pro Research Report, available to InvestingPro subscribers.

In other recent news, SentinelOne Inc. (NYSE:S) reported mixed fourth-quarter financial results, which led to various analysts adjusting their price targets for the company. Despite achieving a 27% year-over-year growth in annual recurring revenue (ARR) to $920.1 million, the company missed consensus estimates and provided a conservative revenue guidance for fiscal year 2026. Needham, Scotiabank (TSX:BNS), Cantor Fitzgerald, BTIG, and Raymond (NSE:RYMD) James all lowered their price targets, with the new targets ranging between $19 and $27, while maintaining varied ratings from Buy to Sector Perform.

The company announced plans to retire its legacy Deception product, which impacted the ARR and is expected to reduce fiscal year 2026 ARR by approximately $10 million. Analysts noted that SentinelOne’s guidance for fiscal year 2026 suggests a 22% to 23% increase in top-line revenue, which is below market expectations. Despite these challenges, the company reported a positive operating margin for the first time and highlighted strong demand for its emerging solutions in cloud, AI, and SIEM technologies, which accounted for over 50% of new bookings in fiscal year 2025.

BTIG remained optimistic, citing an improving free cash flow profile and strong traction for products outside of the core endpoint security portfolio. Raymond James emphasized SentinelOne’s strong technological positioning and growth driven by new customer acquisition. The company’s recent achievements in profitability and market expansion are seen as positive developments, although analysts suggest a cautious approach until more consistent revenue acceleration is evident.

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