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On Monday, Citi analyst Rajiv Berlia adjusted the price target for Sobha Ltd (SOBHA:IN) to INR1,250 from the previous INR1,450, while sustaining a Sell rating on the stock. The adjustment follows Sobha Ltd’s reported decline in year-over-year pre-sales for the third quarter of fiscal year 2025.
Sobha Ltd experienced an 18% quarter-over-quarter increase in total sales value, reaching Rs13.9 billion in the third quarter of FY25. However, this figure represents a 29% drop compared to the same period last year. In terms of sales volume, the company sold 1.02 million square feet, which was up 9% from the previous quarter but down a significant 39% year-over-year.
The company’s share of sales value saw an increase of 27% quarter-over-quarter, totaling Rs12.5 billion in the third quarter. Despite this quarterly growth, the year-over-year comparison shows a 28% decrease.
Looking ahead, Sobha Ltd has tempered its expectations for FY25 pre-sales, aligning them with the FY24 levels. Initially projected pre-sales of Rs85 billion have been revised down to Rs66 billion. However, the company anticipates that it could surpass FY24 pre-sales if additional projects launch as scheduled. As of the nine-month mark in FY25, Sobha has achieved approximately 67% of its revised pre-sales target, with Rs44 billion in pre-sales.
Citi highlighted that the slower pace of pre-sales in higher ticket size projects is a concern. The company’s future performance is expected to hinge on the trajectory of new launches over the next two to three quarters. The analyst’s maintained Sell rating reflects these challenges and the impact on the company’s valuation.
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