Citi cuts Tandem Diabetes Care target to $35, keeps Buy rating

Published 27/02/2025, 12:32
Citi cuts Tandem Diabetes Care target to $35, keeps Buy rating

On Thursday, Citi analysts, led by Joanna Wuensch, adjusted the price target for Tandem Diabetes Care (NASDAQ:TNDM) shares to $35 from the previous $50, while maintaining a Buy rating on the stock. According to InvestingPro data, analyst targets for TNDM range from $18 to $75, with the stock currently trading near $33.59. The adjustment follows Tandem’s fourth-quarter earnings report, which presented mixed results and forward-looking guidance that may concern investors, particularly as nine analysts have recently revised their earnings estimates downward.

Tandem Diabetes Care reported fourth-quarter 2024 revenues of $252.4 million, a 20.6% increase, surpassing the consensus estimate of $249.7 million. The company’s U.S. sales amounted to $184.4 million, up 12.8% when excluding Tandem Choice, though falling short of the expected $190.3 million. International sales exceeded expectations, coming in at $68.1 million, a significant 48.4% increase over the forecasted $59.4 million.

The company’s gross margin saw a slight improvement, rising to 50.7% from 50.6% year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA was reported at $2.3 million, notably lower than the consensus estimate of $12.8 million. Despite the positive revenue growth, much of the analyst and investor focus centered on the company’s 2025 revenue guidance.

Tandem provided a 2025 revenue outlook of between $997 million and $1.007 billion, representing a 10-11% increase. This projection is slightly below the consensus estimate of $1.01 billion and accounts for potential international headwinds of $15-$20 million as the company transitions to direct operations overseas.

The guidance for first-quarter 2025 revenue was lower than anticipated, suggesting a need for a significant ramp-up in sales throughout the remainder of the year. While Citi’s analysts believe the targets are achievable, especially with new products on the horizon, they acknowledge that the guidance may place short-term pressure on Tandem’s stock. Wuensch’s commentary highlighted the potential investor unease, stating, "We rate TNDM Buy but expect it to be pressured post print."

In other recent news, Tandem Diabetes Care Inc. reported impressive financial results for the fourth quarter of 2024, surpassing analyst expectations. The company achieved an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.01, significantly better than the forecasted loss of $0.21. Revenue also exceeded projections, reaching $282.65 million compared to the anticipated $251.3 million. Despite these positive results, concerns about future profitability and competitive pressures led to a notable decline in the company’s stock during after-hours trading. Tandem Diabetes is actively expanding its presence in the Type 2 diabetes market and reported worldwide sales of $910 million for the year, marking an 18% increase from the previous year. The company is projecting continued growth in 2025, with expected worldwide sales between $997 million and $1 billion. Analyst firms such as Stifel and Oppenheimer have shown interest in Tandem’s strategic initiatives, including its expansion into the pharmacy channel and the introduction of new product innovations. These developments are part of Tandem’s broader strategy to enhance its market share and improve its financial performance.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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