Citi downgrades Northern Star Resources stock as capex outlook clouds FCF

Published 25/07/2025, 06:48
Citi downgrades Northern Star Resources stock as capex outlook clouds FCF

Investing.com - Citi downgraded Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST) from Buy to Neutral and cut its price target to AUD18.00 from AUD21.00, citing concerns about capital expenditure and delayed free cash flow. The gold miner, currently valued at $14.86 billion, maintains a "GREAT" financial health score according to InvestingPro analysis, with strong revenue growth of 25% in the last twelve months.

The research firm added approximately AUD165 million to its FY27/28 capital expenditure forecast for the gold miner and reduced its EBITDA estimates by 3-7% following the company’s recent financial results.

Northern Star does not plan to provide medium-term capital expenditure ranges, though the company’s August 3 site trip to Kalgoorlie Consolidated Gold Mines (KCGM) is expected to offer more details on production outlook through FY29.

Citi now assumes Northern Star will draw AUD750 million in debt to partially fund its Hemi project, which is still pending government approvals before a final investment decision can be made.

Based on Citi’s gold price forecast, which sits below consensus, the firm does not expect Northern Star to generate free cash flow until FY29, assuming Hemi expenditure begins in the second half of FY27 with first gold production in late FY29.

In other recent news, Northern Star Resources has reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 sales results, delivering Q4 sales of 444,000 ounces. This figure aligns with BMO Capital’s expectations but falls short of the consensus estimate of 450,000 ounces. Following these results, BMO Capital has lowered its price target for Northern Star Resources from AUD27.00 to AUD24.00, while still maintaining an Outperform rating. Additionally, UBS has downgraded Northern Star Resources from Buy to Neutral, adjusting its price target from AUD25.80 to AUD23.00. The downgrade by UBS is attributed to what it termed a "disappointing" performance in the March quarter. Northern Star Resources is currently focusing on rebuilding confidence in its productivity levels at the Super Pit operation. The company plans to update its fiscal year 2026 guidance following these efforts. These developments reflect ongoing adjustments in analyst expectations and company operations.

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