Citi lowers United Parks & Resorts stock price target to $49

On Friday, Citi analysts adjusted their outlook for United Parks & Resorts (NYSE: PRKS), reducing the price target to $49 from $51 while maintaining a Neutral rating. The revision follows a decrease in the second-quarter adjusted EBITDA estimate to $226 million, down $7 million, compared to the Street’s $223 million. The adjustment reflects a lowered attendance estimate, now anticipated to increase by 1.5% year-over-year, slightly below the Street’s expectation of a 1.9% rise. The company’s last twelve months EBITDA stands at $642.87 million, with a market capitalization of $2.37 billion.

In addition to the second-quarter forecast, Citi analysts revised their 2025 and 2026 estimates for United Parks & Resorts. The projections for these years were decreased by $6 million each, now standing at $697 million and $725 million, respectively, compared to the Street’s estimates of $694 million and $714 million. The 2027 estimate was also reduced by $7 million to $767 million.

During United Parks & Resorts’ first-quarter earnings call, management reiterated their goal of achieving new records in revenue and adjusted EBITDA. This target has been consistently maintained over the past two years despite previous declines in both metrics, which management attributed to weather-related challenges. To meet their target, the company would need to achieve an adjusted EBITDA of over $729 million, surpassing the consensus estimate of $694 million and Citi’s revised estimate of $697 million.

Management’s confidence in reaching their goals is largely based on strong performance in April, where attendance increased by 8.1% compared to April 2024. Year-to-date attendance showed a growth of approximately 1.3% overall and 3% on a day-for-day basis. However, Citi analysts noted a modest deceleration in foot traffic during May. The stock has experienced a significant 28% decline over the past six months, though InvestingPro analysis shows 4 analysts have recently revised their earnings expectations upward for the upcoming period.

The adjustments to the price target and estimates reflect Citi’s analysis of the company’s performance and outlook, considering both recent attendance trends and management’s expressed confidence in achieving their financial targets. With a P/E ratio of 11.07 and strong historical returns, investors seeking deeper insights can access comprehensive analysis and 10 additional exclusive ProTips through InvestingPro’s detailed research reports.

In other recent news, United Parks & Resorts Inc. reported its first quarter 2025 earnings, revealing a larger-than-expected net loss. The company’s actual earnings per share (EPS) stood at -$0.29, missing the forecasted -$0.21. Revenue also fell short of expectations, coming in at $286.9 million compared to the anticipated $295.77 million. Despite these setbacks, the company remains optimistic about achieving record revenue and adjusted EBITDA for the full year, driven by new attractions and increased international ticket sales. The company is also exploring hotel and real estate development opportunities to enhance its offerings. Meanwhile, United Parks & Resorts’ stock rose by 3.94% in pre-market trading, reflecting investor confidence in future growth prospects. CEO Mark Swanson expressed confidence in the company’s resilience and growth potential, highlighting the strength in April’s performance and ongoing efforts to enhance in-park spending and attendance growth. The company continues to face challenges, including potential consumer spending pullbacks and competition from new market entrants.

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