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On Monday, Citi reiterated its Sell rating on Cracker Barrel (NASDAQ:CBRL) with a steady price target of $36.00. The firm's analysis followed Cracker Barrel's preliminary financial results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2025, which were released on November 14 in anticipation of the company's annual general meeting. An activist investor has been campaigning for a Board seat at this meeting.
Cracker Barrel's preliminary results showed a 2.9% increase in same-store sales (SSS) for restaurants and revenues of $845 million. These figures surpassed both Citi's and the Street's expectations, which had forecasted a 1.5% increase in SSS and revenues of $832 million and $829 million, respectively. However, the company's adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter came in at $45.8 million, which did not meet Citi's projection of $47.1 million but was above the Street's estimate of $44.5 million.
Despite these results, Citi noted that the improvement in year-over-year restaurant SSS from August to October mirrored industry trends, as seen with the Knapp Track index's monthly gains since July. The report also highlighted that the SSS growth included about 5% from pricing, implying that customer traffic and mix pressures persisted throughout the first quarter. The limited flow-through to adjusted EBITDA, which only slightly exceeded the Street's expectations, along with the reiteration of the full-year 2025 guidance, suggests that profit growth may continue to be limited by substantial reinvestments into the business.
Citi's stance indicates that investors may seek further proof that Cracker Barrel's initiatives are effective before fully endorsing the management's long-term EBITDA goals. This cautious outlook suggests that the stock's multiple, and consequently its share price, could remain under pressure in the near term.
In other recent news, Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. reported strong first-quarter results, exceeding sales, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted EPS expectations. This positive performance led Piper Sandler, Truist Securities, and BofA Securities to adjust their price targets on the company. Piper Sandler increased its price target to $46.00, Truist Securities raised it to $48.00, and BofA Securities revised it up to $45.00. Despite these positive results, Cracker Barrel faced criticism from major shareholder Biglari Capital Corp., which called for a halt to new store openings and a focus on improving store-level economics.
The company's board, however, urged shareholders to support its recommended slate of nominees and reject Biglari's proposals at the upcoming Annual Meeting of Shareholders. In its fiscal 2024 fourth-quarter earnings report, Cracker Barrel revealed a total revenue of $894.4 million, a 6.9% increase from the previous year, yet the adjusted EBITDA decreased to $57.4 million.
Looking ahead, the company's fiscal 2025 plans include 25 to 30 store remodels and the opening of new Cracker Barrel and Maple Street locations, projecting a revenue of $3.4 billion to $3.5 billion.
InvestingPro Insights
Cracker Barrel's recent performance and Citi's analysis can be further contextualized with real-time data from InvestingPro. The company's market capitalization stands at $1.06 billion, with a P/E ratio of 26.03, reflecting investor expectations despite recent challenges.
InvestingPro Tips highlight that Cracker Barrel has maintained dividend payments for 43 consecutive years, demonstrating a commitment to shareholder returns even in challenging times. This consistency aligns with the company's mature business model and could be appealing to income-focused investors.
However, another InvestingPro Tip notes that short-term obligations exceed liquid assets, which may explain the company's need for substantial reinvestments mentioned in Citi's report. This financial position could be contributing to the pressure on profit growth and EBITDA performance.
The company's revenue for the last twelve months as of Q4 2024 was $3.47 billion, with a modest growth of 0.81%. This slow growth, combined with an operating income margin of 2.1%, underscores the challenges Cracker Barrel faces in improving profitability, as highlighted in Citi's analysis.
For investors seeking a more comprehensive analysis, InvestingPro offers additional tips and metrics that could provide deeper insights into Cracker Barrel's financial health and future prospects.
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