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On Friday, Citi analyst Aaron Guy shifted his stance on Merlin Properties Socimi SA (MRL:SM) (OTC: MRPRF), upgrading the stock from Sell to Neutral and increasing the price target to €11.90 from €7.52. Guy's assessment is based on the potential of the company's diverse portfolio, which includes office spaces, shopping centers, and logistics. He believes that these sectors have a limited downside and could see an upside starting from 2026 if developments occur sooner than expected.
The analyst also took into account Merlin Properties' data center segment, acknowledging the progress towards valuation certainty. However, he noted that the build-out risk associated with this segment warrants a Neutral rating. Guy explained that negative developments in the data centers could lead to a valuation below his estimate, while positive news could support a higher valuation.
The revised price target offers a 13% expected total return (ETR) and is underpinned by a sum of the parts valuation. This valuation approach accounts for an estimated €2.2 billion from the data center business and €4.8 billion from the office, shopping center, and logistics operations. Guy's price target is derived from an economic profit-based model, which factors in the various segments of Merlin Properties' business.
Merlin Properties' portfolio diversification appears to be a key factor in Citi's upgraded rating and price target. The company's mix of real estate assets, including its venture into the data center market, presents a balanced risk-reward scenario according to the Citi analyst. Despite the risks associated with the expansion of the data center business, the potential for valuation certainty seems to contribute positively to the company's overall financial outlook.
Investors may view the upgrade and price target increase as a signal of Merlin Properties' stability and growth potential in the coming years. The company's strategic focus on various real estate segments, including the burgeoning data center market, positions it to capitalize on future opportunities while managing the inherent risks of development and expansion.
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