Citi warns housing construction weakness likely to persist as rates remain high

Published 18/07/2025, 15:36
Citi warns housing construction weakness likely to persist as rates remain high

Investing.com - U.S. housing starts and permits showed a modest increase in June but remain near multi-year lows, according to a new Citi research note released Friday. The real estate sector’s leading ETF (VNQ) reflects this challenging environment, trading at $89.98 with a P/E ratio of 12.05, though offering a robust 3.87% dividend yield. InvestingPro data shows the fund has maintained dividend payments for 22 consecutive years.

The report highlights that while overall housing activity has returned to pre-pandemic levels, June’s strength was primarily concentrated in volatile multi-family units, masking continued weakness in single-family home construction.

Citi identifies several factors potentially weighing on construction, including policy changes related to immigration and tariffs, but emphasizes that renewed weakening in housing demand signals interest rates remain at restrictive levels.

The analysis notes that listings of available homes for sale have returned to pre-pandemic levels, suggesting that limited supply is no longer a major factor driving buyers toward new construction.

Based on these conditions, Citi concludes that "weakness in new construction will likely continue" as the housing market continues to face headwinds from high interest rates and changing supply dynamics.

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