CommVault stock holds neutral with $173 target at Cantor Fitzgerald

Published 30/04/2025, 15:26
CommVault stock holds neutral with $173 target at Cantor Fitzgerald

On Wednesday, Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Thomas Blakey confirmed a Neutral rating and a $173.00 price target for CommVault Systems (NASDAQ:CVLT), following the company’s fourth-quarter fiscal year 2025 earnings report. According to InvestingPro data, the stock currently trades at $164.02, with analyst targets ranging from $159.34 to $200.00. The company maintains a "GREAT" financial health score, suggesting strong operational fundamentals. CommVault experienced a significant 45% growth in Subscription revenue, which now accounts for 63% of its total revenue. This growth exceeded the 35% estimate by Visible Alpha and was fueled by a notable increase in sales productivity, cross-selling, and up-selling activities, particularly in the Software (ETR:SOWGn) as a Service (SaaS) domain, formerly known as Metallic. The company’s overall revenue reached $995.62 million in the last twelve months, with an impressive gross profit margin of 82.02%. InvestingPro subscribers can access 12 additional key insights about CommVault’s financial performance and growth potential.

The company’s Subscription revenue boost was attributed to robust sales in cyber resilience products, such as Active Directory, Threat Scan, and Clean Room, as well as compliance with regulatory standards like the Digital Operations Resilience Act (DORA), which came into effect in Europe in January 2025. Large deal growth was a key driver for CommVault in the fourth quarter, with a substantial portion of this growth coming from regulatory-focused sectors such as banking and healthcare. The company also reported an increase in deals over $100,000, with contract durations extending towards two and a half years, up from just over two years.

CommVault not only engaged in significant transactions but also saw a healthy rise in overall transaction volume during the quarter. The company’s forecast for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, while cautious, suggests the continuation of trends observed in the fourth quarter, including up-selling, sales productivity improvements, and strong demand for cyber resilience solutions.

The analyst expects CommVault’s gross margin percentage to remain strong, albeit with potential slight pressure due to the dynamic growth in the SaaS segment, which is estimated to grow from 22% of fiscal year 2025 revenue to more than 28% in fiscal year 2026. Despite ongoing investments in Sales & Marketing (S&M) and Research & Development (R&D), EBIT margins are projected to remain stable at 21% for fiscal year 2026.

In summary, Blakey’s outlook on CommVault is that the company is well-positioned to capitalize on ongoing digital modernization trends, offering a unique platform that caters to legacy, cloud, and cloud-native solutions. The reiterated Neutral rating and price target reflect a 6x calendar year 2026 estimated enterprise value to revenue multiple, consistent with the one-year next twelve months (NTM) average multiple and approximately 4x on a three-year basis. Based on InvestingPro’s Fair Value analysis, CommVault appears to be slightly overvalued at current levels. For deeper insights into CommVault’s valuation and growth prospects, investors can access the comprehensive Pro Research Report, which provides detailed analysis of the company’s financial health, market position, and future potential.

In other recent news, Commvault Systems Inc. reported impressive financial results for Q1 2025, surpassing market expectations. The company’s earnings per share reached $1.03, outperforming the forecasted $0.87, while revenue climbed to $275 million, exceeding the anticipated $251.32 million. This robust performance was largely driven by a 45% increase in subscription revenue, highlighting Commvault’s successful shift towards a subscription-based model. The company’s non-GAAP EBIT also saw a 31% year-over-year increase, reaching $59 million. Furthermore, Commvault provided optimistic guidance for fiscal 2026, projecting total revenue between $1.13 billion and $1.14 billion, with a 35% expected growth in subscription revenue. Analysts from firms like KeyBanc Capital Markets and Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) showed interest in the company’s strategic focus and the integration of recent acquisitions like Clumio, which is expected to enhance Commvault’s capabilities in handling large data sets. Despite the competitive landscape, Commvault remains confident in its growth trajectory, emphasizing its cyber resilience offerings as a key differentiator.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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