On Monday, Craig-Hallum initiated coverage on Latham Group Inc. (NASDAQ: SWIM), bestowing a Buy rating and setting a price target of $10.00. Currently trading at $6.48, the stock has shown remarkable momentum with a 161% return over the past year. According to InvestingPro data, analyst targets for the stock range from $5.00 to $7.70.
The firm's analysis suggests that the industry for pool sales is poised for a rebound in FY25, anticipating growth spurred by lower interest rates, increased financing options, and a rise in home equity. This growth is expected to benefit Latham Group particularly due to an industry shift from concrete to fiberglass pools, which are more cost-effective and require less labor, as they are manufactured in factories rather than constructed on-site.
Latham Group, which has experienced revenue declines with a 12.2% drop in the last twelve months, is predicted to see growth once again. Craig-Hallum's outlook is based on the company's streamlined cost structure, which is expected to leverage operational efficiencies and enhance earnings potential.
InvestingPro analysis shows the company maintains a healthy current ratio of 2.44, with liquid assets well exceeding short-term obligations.
The analyst firm believes that as investor confidence grows in response to these market dynamics, Latham Group's stock is likely to undergo a positive re-rating and begin to align more closely with its peers in the high-quality building products sector.
The analyst's commentary emphasized the anticipated return to growth for pool sales in the upcoming fiscal year, highlighting the positive impact of lower interest rates and the availability of more financing options. The pent-up demand resulting from increased home equity is also expected to contribute to the industry's recovery.
Latham Group's shift in focus towards fiberglass pools is seen as a strategic move that leverages the advantages of lower costs and reduced labor requirements. The company's adaptation to market trends and the right-sizing of its cost structure are key factors that Craig-Hallum identifies as catalysts for the expected growth and earnings power.
The firm's optimistic stance on Latham Group reflects a broader expectation that the company's stock will eventually trade in line with its peers, driven by the anticipated industry growth and the company's strategic positioning.
The analyst's coverage initiation has set a positive tone for Latham Group's outlook in the coming fiscal year. For deeper insights into Latham Group's valuation and growth prospects, InvestingPro subscribers can access comprehensive financial health scores and 12 additional ProTips that provide valuable context for investment decisions.
In other recent news, Latham Group, a leading in-ground pool manufacturer, reported a year-over-year decrease of 6.4% in net sales to $150.5 million in Q3 2024, despite an improved gross margin due to cost reduction initiatives.
The acquisition of Coverstar Central is expected to enhance net sales and adjusted EBITDA margins. Furthermore, the company has refined its full-year guidance, projecting net sales to be between $500 million and $510 million and adjusted EBITDA between $77 million and $83 million.
BofA Securities has adjusted its price target for Latham Group to $5.30, maintaining an underperform rating. This change reflects a revised valuation multiple based on the estimated 2025 enterprise value to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.
However, BofA Securities expressed caution due to anticipated muted recovery in 2025 and uncertainties surrounding the timeline for increased market penetration of fiberglass pools in targeted states.
Latham Group is strategizing to enhance fiberglass pool market penetration in states such as Florida, Texas, Arizona, and California, where fiberglass pool sales currently represent only about 15% of the company's sales. The company's strategy includes converting concrete pool dealers to fiberglass, adding new dealers, and improving the productivity of existing dealers.
This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.