DA Davidson cuts e.l.f. Beauty stock target to $64, maintains neutral

Published 01/04/2025, 19:22
DA Davidson cuts e.l.f. Beauty stock target to $64, maintains neutral

On Tuesday, DA Davidson adjusted its financial outlook for e.l.f. Beauty (NYSE:ELF), reducing the price target from $75.00 to $64.00, while keeping a Neutral stance on the company’s shares. The adjustment comes as the stock trades near its 52-week low, having declined nearly 50% year-to-date according to InvestingPro data. The firm’s analysis noted that e.l.f. Beauty’s U.S. tracked channel point-of-sale (POS) data remained subdued in the two weeks ending March 22nd. Although there was a slight improvement in year-over-year growth for the March quarter-to-date, increasing to 0.8% from 0.1% two weeks prior, POS experienced a decline in 6 out of the last 12 weeks. However, there was a notable 9.7% growth in the most recent week observed. Despite recent challenges, the company maintains impressive gross profit margins of 71% and has demonstrated strong revenue growth of 46% over the last twelve months.

The report also mentioned that e.l.f. Beauty’s guidance for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2025, which estimates sales ranging from a decrease of 1% to an increase of 3%, appears achievable due to strong international growth. Nonetheless, DA Davidson expressed concerns that the company’s fiscal year 2026 guidance might not meet the market’s expectations of a 10% increase in sales and an 11% rise in EBITDA.

The firm highlighted that e.l.f. Beauty’s recent product introductions have been incremental rather than groundbreaking. However, there is anticipation for a significant product launch scheduled for April. In light of these factors, DA Davidson has revised its target multiple downward from 14x to 12x and adjusted the price target to $64 based on 12 times the projected CY26E EBITDA of $314 million. According to InvestingPro analysis, the stock appears undervalued at current levels, with analyst targets ranging from $70 to $127. For deeper insights into e.l.f. Beauty’s valuation and 14 additional ProTips, subscribers can access the comprehensive Pro Research Report.

In other recent news, e.l.f. Beauty has been the subject of several analyst reports highlighting its current performance and future outlook. DA Davidson recently adjusted its price target for e.l.f. Beauty to $75 from $80, maintaining a Neutral rating. This adjustment follows discussions about a slowdown in point-of-sale growth and the company’s strategic efforts to stimulate demand by advancing a major product launch to April. Despite these challenges, Piper Sandler has maintained an Overweight rating on e.l.f. Beauty, with a price target of $102, citing the company’s appealing valuation and the potential of its diverse sales channels to support performance.

e.l.f. Beauty’s recent sales data show a mixed picture, with U.S. point-of-sale figures indicating a decline, yet international growth remains robust. The company’s guidance for the fourth quarter anticipates sales ranging from a 1% decline to a 3% increase year-over-year. However, there are concerns about meeting fiscal year 2026 expectations, which include an 11% increase in sales and a 12% rise in EBITDA. Analysts have noted that while recent product launches appear iterative, the company is poised for a significant product release earlier than planned.

DA Davidson’s analysis indicates that a more positive outlook would require evidence of a recovery in U.S. point-of-sale growth. Meanwhile, Piper Sandler remains confident in e.l.f. Beauty’s strategy, emphasizing strong performance in untracked channels, including international sales and digital platforms, to offset U.S. market softness. Both firms continue to monitor e.l.f. Beauty’s progress as it navigates these developments.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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