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On Tuesday, DA Davidson provided insights into the recent performance of the Packaged Food sector. Analysts at the firm observed a slight decline in year-over-year sales and volume over the last four weeks (L4W), compared to the last twelve weeks (L12W) and last fifty-two weeks (L52W). This trend occurred despite an increase in promotional activities compared to the previous year. Private label brands continued to see modest share gains, even with heightened promotions from branded products, with distribution factors also playing a part in performance. According to InvestingPro data, this sector volatility has created opportunities for value investors, with several companies trading below their Fair Value estimates.
Among the companies monitored by DA Davidson, BellRing Brands (NYSE:BRBR), J.M. Smucker Company (NYSE:SJM), and Mondelez International (NASDAQ:MDLZ) experienced an acceleration in sales growth in the L4W compared to L12W and L52W. DA Davidson maintained a ’NEUTRAL’ rating on BRBR and SJM, while endorsing MDLZ with a ’BUY’ rating. For SJM specifically, InvestingPro data shows a 7.07% revenue growth and an impressive 3.86% dividend yield, with 55 consecutive years of dividend payments. The company currently appears slightly undervalued based on InvestingPro’s Fair Value analysis, with 11 additional ProTips available to subscribers.
Conversely, the firm reported a deceleration in sales growth for Vital Farms (NASDAQ:VITL), The Simply Good Foods Company (NASDAQ:SMPL), Freshpet (NASDAQ:FRPT), Oatly Group AB (NASDAQ:OTLY), Flowers Foods (NYSE:FLO), The Hain Celestial Group (NASDAQ:HAIN), Lancaster Colony Corporation (NASDAQ:LANC), and Utz Brands (NYSE:UTZ). Despite the slower growth, VITL, FRPT, and OTLY retained their ’BUY’ ratings, whereas SMPL, FLO, HAIN, LANC, and UTZ were given a ’NEUTRAL’ stance.
The update highlights the nuanced dynamics within the Packaged Food sector, with specific brands outperforming or underperforming in the context of broader industry trends and consumer preferences. The analysts’ ratings indicate a varied outlook for stocks within the sector, reflecting company-specific factors and market conditions.
In other recent news, J.M. Smucker reported third-quarter fiscal year 2025 earnings per share (EPS) of $2.61, surpassing its own projections and Stifel’s estimates. Despite this earnings beat, the company experienced a slight decline in sales growth, with revenues of $2.186 billion falling short of consensus estimates by 1.8%. The revenue shortfall was primarily attributed to supply issues in the Pet Food segment, which have since been resolved. In response to these challenges, J.M. Smucker has revised its fiscal year 2025 revenue guidance downward but increased its EPS forecast by $0.10. Analysts from DA Davidson and Stifel have maintained their respective Neutral and Hold ratings on the stock, with price targets of $122 and $120. Bernstein also maintained a Market Perform rating with a price target of $104, noting mixed results in the company’s performance. Additionally, major U.S. food corporations, including J.M. Smucker, are advocating for tariff exemptions on certain imports to protect manufacturers and reduce consumer inflation. These developments reflect ongoing challenges and strategic adjustments as J.M. Smucker navigates market dynamics.
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