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On Thursday, DA Davidson analyst Brent Thielman upgraded Sterling Construction (NASDAQ:STRL)’s stock rating from Neutral to Buy, setting a price target of $185.00. Thielman highlighted several factors contributing to Sterling’s upgraded status, including the company’s stronger-than-anticipated margin, earnings, and cash flow potential. He noted the sustainably higher margins in E-Infrastructure and the rapid development pace of data centers and industrial/manufacturing facilities. The company’s strong financial position is reflected in its "GREAT" overall health score according to InvestingPro, with current revenue of $2.12 billion and an impressive 36% return on equity. Thielman also pointed to the potential for mergers and acquisitions in 2025, backed by Sterling’s meaningful liquidity and a history of accretive transactions.
The analyst further mentioned the possibility of a resumption in homebuilding activity in the southern United States, which could provide additional growth levers, likely becoming more significant in 2026. Thielman’s positive outlook is also based on Sterling’s current valuation, which he considers attractive given the significant pullback in its shares this year. Currently trading at $122.16, InvestingPro analysis suggests the stock is slightly overvalued at current levels, with two key ProTips highlighting its low P/E ratio relative to growth and strong long-term returns. The company is now trading at 8 times EBITDA and 10 times free cash flow.
Thielman’s price target of $185 is based on 13 times and 12 times the firm’s 2025 and 2026 EBITDA estimates, respectively, or 16 times and 14 times the free cash flow per share estimates for the same years. Despite the recent industry valuation compression, DA Davidson’s estimates are on the higher end, reinforcing the firm’s confidence in Sterling Construction’s future performance.
Sterling Construction’s upgraded rating and price target reflect DA Davidson’s anticipation of the company’s continued growth and profitability, driven by strategic initiatives and market opportunities. The upgrade suggests that Sterling Construction is well-positioned to capitalize on the expanding E-Infrastructure sector and potential industry developments in the coming years.
In other recent news, Sterling Construction Company Inc. reported its fourth-quarter 2024 financial results, showcasing a strong performance in earnings. The company achieved an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.46, surpassing the forecast of $1.29, indicating effective cost management and a strategic focus on high-margin projects. However, revenue for the quarter fell short of expectations, coming in at $498.8 million against a forecast of $533.43 million. Sterling Construction’s E-Infrastructure backlog exceeded $1 billion for the first time, reflecting significant growth potential in this segment.
The company announced a strategic shift towards higher-margin projects and geographic expansion, which may contribute to its future growth. For 2025, Sterling Construction has provided revenue guidance between $2.0 billion and $2.15 billion and adjusted EPS guidance in the range of $7.90 to $8.40. The company anticipates over 10% revenue growth in its E-Infrastructure segment and significant profit growth in its Transportation Solutions division. Sterling Construction’s strategic initiatives include expanding capabilities in data center and semiconductor infrastructure projects, which are expected to drive continued growth.
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