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On Thursday, Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn)’s analysis led to a downward revision of the price target for DHL Group (DHL:GR), from EUR50.00 to EUR42.00, while the firm maintained a Buy rating on the company’s stock. The adjustment comes as Deutsche Bank analysts, including Andy Chu, recalibrate their expectations for the logistics giant in light of upcoming challenges.
The revised price target reflects a more cautious outlook due to potential economic headwinds. Analysts at Deutsche Bank have slightly reduced their 2025 EBIT forecast for DHL to €5,976 million, which is just below the company’s own guidance of over €6 billion. The revision is based on the expectation that tariffs could lead to modestly lower global trade, approximately in line with real global GDP.
Deutsche Bank’s analysts had previously anticipated that increased complexity in supply chains would necessitate additional value-added services, potentially compensating for any reduction in trade volumes. However, they now express concern that the ongoing uncertainty surrounding tariffs and possible retaliatory measures could significantly impact global GDP, raising the specter of a potential recession.
The analysis suggests that while DHL Group may face challenges, the expectation of an increase in value-added services could provide some balance against the anticipated decline in trade volumes. Despite the reduced price target, the Buy rating indicates that Deutsche Bank still sees potential value in DHL Group’s shares under the current market conditions.
Investors and stakeholders in DHL Group will be closely monitoring the company’s performance as it navigates the evolving economic landscape, with particular attention to how changes in global trade dynamics might affect its financial outcomes.
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