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On Thursday, Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn) analyst Matt O’Conner changed the rating for M&T Bank (NYSE:MTB) from Hold to Buy, while adjusting the price target to $210 from the previous $225. The revision follows a notable decline in the bank’s shares, which have fallen 19% since the market highs in February.
O’Conner pointed out that M&T Bank’s Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio stands high at 11.5% on a reported basis, and it’s slightly higher when including Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income (AOCI). This figure surpasses the average of 10.8% reported by large regional banks and 9.1% when including AOCI. The robust CET1 ratio is cited as the primary reason for the upgrade.
The analyst believes that M&T Bank’s strong capital position should enable the bank to aggressively deploy capital in several key areas. These areas include loan issuance, share buybacks, and mergers and acquisitions. The market already regards M&T Bank as a potential buyer, and according to O’Conner, a competent one in that regard.
M&T Bank’s capital strength and strategic deployment opportunities provide the rationale behind Deutsche Bank’s upgraded rating. The bank’s ability to utilize its capital effectively in these areas is expected to contribute to its financial performance moving forward.
In other recent news, M&T Bank reported its first-quarter 2025 earnings, revealing a slight miss on both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue compared to analyst expectations. The bank posted an EPS of $3.38, falling short of the forecasted $3.42, while revenue for the quarter came in at $2.32 billion, under the expected $2.35 billion. Analysts from Piper Sandler noted that the earnings miss was partly due to an absence of the anticipated Bayview distribution, although M&T Bank has indicated that fee income is expected to remain at the higher end of projections. Despite the earnings shortfall, M&T Bank executed $662 million in share repurchases, signaling confidence in its financial health.
Several firms have adjusted their price targets for M&T Bank, with RBC Capital Markets and Keefe, Bruyette & Woods both lowering their targets to $200, while DA Davidson reduced its target to $189. Piper Sandler also cut its target to $210 but maintained an Overweight rating, emphasizing positive trends like expense management and strong buyback activity. Analysts noted that the bank’s credit metrics showed improvement, with a decrease in nonperforming assets and criticized loans, contributing to a stable outlook.
M&T Bank’s management expects an increase in net interest income throughout 2025, despite a recent reduction in guidance due to anticipated lower average loan and deposit levels. The bank remains focused on long-term shareholder value through disciplined lending practices and a diversified fee income stream. Analyst firms such as RBC Capital Markets and DA Davidson have highlighted the bank’s strong liquidity position amid economic uncertainties, underscoring the resilience of its business model.
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