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Investing.com - Bernstein SocGen Group has reiterated its Market Perform rating on Dollar Tree (NASDAQ:DLTR) with a price target of $109.00, citing concerns about the sustainability of recent sales growth. This analysis comes as rival Dollar General (NYSE:DG) shows strong momentum with a remarkable 48% price return over the past six months, according to InvestingPro data.
The firm notes that Dollar Tree has generated elevated comparable sales growth, but cautions that several key drivers behind this performance may not continue into 2026.
According to Bernstein, these temporary growth factors include competitor store closures, Temu’s market pullback, and trade-down behavior from middle to high-income consumers.
The investment firm expressed preference for Dollar General over Dollar Tree, describing it as "largely a self help story" with a clearer path to sustaining comparable sales growth in the 2-3% range even after temporary benefits fade.
Bernstein analyst Zhihan Ma specifically highlighted "more downside risk to DLTR’s comp if and when one-time benefits dissipate," suggesting Dollar Tree may face greater challenges maintaining its current sales momentum.
In other recent news, Dollar General has reported its second-quarter earnings and revenue results, capturing the attention of several analyst firms. The company reported earnings of $1.86 per share, surpassing Truist Securities’ estimate of $1.62, largely due to improved margins. Dollar General’s sales performance was in line with Truist’s revised forecast of $10.73 billion. UBS responded to these results by raising its price target for Dollar General to $135, maintaining a Buy rating and noting the company’s positive earnings recovery trajectory. Raymond James also raised its price target to $130, highlighting the retailer’s better-than-expected comparable sales and gross margin percentage. Meanwhile, Piper Sandler increased its price target to $117, observing a 2.8% increase in comparable store sales, aligning with the higher end of the company’s target range. Truist Securities adjusted its price target to $120, while maintaining a Hold rating. BMO Capital reiterated its Market Perform rating with a $115 target, citing Dollar General’s effective execution and back-to-basics strategy. These developments reflect a general optimism among analysts regarding Dollar General’s recent financial performance.
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