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On Wednesday, Evercore ISI analysts increased the price target for Post Holdings (NYSE: NYSE:POST) stock to $131 from $130, maintaining an Outperform rating. The adjustment follows Post Holdings’ announcement of its acquisition of 8th Avenue Food & Provisions for $880 million, including $111 million in finance leases. The acquisition deal is structured with debt and cash, reflecting a 6.8x proforma EV/EBITDA, inclusive of synergies.
The analysts anticipate the acquisition, expected to close on July 1, will positively impact Post Holdings’ financial performance. The company has demonstrated consistent profitability, with an EBITDA of $1.3 billion over the last twelve months. They have adjusted their estimates for the company’s EBITDA for fiscal years 2025 and 2026. The FY25 EBITDA estimate has been revised to $1.483 billion from $1.453 billion, marking a 6% year-over-year increase. For FY26, the estimate has been raised to $1.605 billion from $1.505 billion, reflecting an 8% year-over-year growth.
The updated price target is based on a sum-of-parts analysis, with the new target equivalent to approximately 9x EV/EBITDA for the calendar year 2026. The acquisition of 8th Avenue is assumed to trade at 7x EV/EBITDA, matching its acquisition multiple.
Post Holdings remains a top value pick in the food sector for Evercore ISI, as indicated in their previous note titled "Watching for PCB stabilization & M&A."
In other recent news, Post Holdings reported its second-quarter earnings for 2025, with earnings per share (EPS) surpassing expectations at $1.41, compared to the forecasted $1.19. However, the company’s revenue did not meet projections, recording $1.95 billion against an anticipated $1.99 billion. The company revised its adjusted EBITDA guidance upwards to a range of $1.430-$1.470 billion, indicating confidence in operational efficiency. In a strategic move, Post Holdings announced the acquisition of 8th Avenue Food & Provisions for $880 million, including the assumption of $111 million in finance leases. This acquisition is expected to add approximately $1 billion in annual revenue, enhancing Post’s pro forma sales to around $9 billion. Moody’s has maintained Post Holdings’ stable ratings following this acquisition announcement. The acquisition is also anticipated to bring modest cost synergies and diversify Post’s portfolio. These developments reflect Post Holdings’ ongoing efforts to navigate challenging market conditions while focusing on strategic growth and cost management.
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