Freeport-McMoRan stock price target cut by UBS after Grasberg incident

Published 25/09/2025, 08:40
Freeport-McMoRan stock price target cut by UBS after Grasberg incident

Investing.com - UBS lowered its price target on Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX) to $42.50 from $50.00 on Thursday, while maintaining a Neutral rating following a significant incident at the company’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia. The stock, currently trading at $37.67, has fallen over 16% in the past week, with InvestingPro data showing four analysts revising their earnings estimates downward for the upcoming period.

The incident, which occurred on September 8, involved approximately 800,000 tons of wet material entering one of five caves at the mine site, damaging infrastructure including rail and supporting structures, as well as mobile, electrical, and communications equipment. This development has impacted the $54.09 billion market cap company, though InvestingPro analysis indicates the company maintains strong liquidity with a current ratio of 2.47.

The affected Grasberg block cave (GBC) represents approximately 70% of the previously guided production volume at Grasberg through 2029, according to UBS analysis of the company’s update on the situation.

Freeport-McMoRan expects unaffected underground mines at the site, which account for roughly 30% of production, could restart operations by mid-fourth quarter 2025, with a phased restart of the GBC beginning in the first half of 2026.

The company anticipates a full return to pre-incident estimated copper production of 1.7-1.8 million pounds (800,000 tons) and gold production of 1.5-1.6 million ounces by 2027, following a sequential restart of various blocks within the mine.

In other recent news, Freeport-McMoRan has faced a series of analyst actions following an incident at its Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia. The company has reported that production in 2026 could be approximately 35% lower than pre-incident estimates, with a potential return to previous operating rates by 2027. Bernstein upgraded Freeport-McMoRan from Market Perform to Outperform, citing upside potential despite these challenges, and adjusted its price target to $48.50. In contrast, Scotiabank downgraded the stock from Sector Outperform to Sector Perform, lowering the price target to $45.00, due to significant operational impacts and a decline in EBITDA estimates. BofA Securities also downgraded Freeport-McMoRan from Buy to Neutral, reducing its price target to $42.00, following the incident that led to fatalities and missing persons. Jefferies maintained a Buy rating but lowered its price target to $46.00, reflecting reduced EBITDA forecasts for 2026. Lastly, BMO Capital lowered its price target to $48.00 while maintaining an Outperform rating, based on the preliminary impact report of the mine incident. These developments reflect the varied analyst perspectives on Freeport-McMoRan’s outlook following the Grasberg incident.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.