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Wednesday - Goldman Sachs has downgraded Fidelis Insurance Holdings (NYSE:FIHL) from Neutral to Sell, adjusting the price target to $16.00 from the previous $21.00. The revised price target suggests a potential downside from the company's current market position, as analysts at Goldman Sachs anticipate a challenging period ahead for Fidelis.
The downgrade reflects a projected total return opportunity of -3%, which is notably lower than the ~17% average return for the insurers covered by Goldman Sachs. Fidelis's vulnerability within the coverage universe is attributed to its significant exposure to declining property Catastrophe (CAT) pricing, with nearly its entire book comprised of property and short-tail business.
Goldman Sachs highlighted observations from late December, which showed an acceleration in rate decline commentary and data from brokers and stamping offices. This trend is expected to impact Fidelis's growth and margins, resulting in earnings projections for 2026/2027 that are 2% below Visible Alpha Consensus expectations.
Further concerns were raised regarding Fidelis's long-term Return on Equity (ROE) guidance, which Goldman Sachs deems optimistic. The company's short-duration investment portfolio is also considered to be in a relatively worse position compared to other underwriters in the coverage universe, based on the forward curve.
Despite Fidelis trading at a significant discount, which is implied by regression levels for an approximate 13% ROE in 2026, the outlook remains cautious. The discount is thought to be influenced by the volatility of earnings from Fidelis's property insurance-heavy business mix, risks associated with its operating structure, and the sensitivity of its Bespoke risks portfolio to economic changes. As the underwriting environment for Fidelis deteriorates, Goldman Sachs sees little likelihood of a positive shift in the firm's circumstances.
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