Palantir a high-risk investment with ’a one-of-a-kind growth and margin model’
On Monday, Goldman Sachs analyst Stephen Laszczyk downgraded Warner Music Group (NASDAQ:WMG) from "Buy" to "Neutral," also reducing the stock’s price target from $35.00 to $28.00. The stock has already fallen nearly 10% in the past week and is trading close to its 52-week low of $26.34. The downgrade follows Warner Music Group’s financial results for the second quarter of fiscal year 2025, which displayed weaker-than-anticipated growth in subscription and ad-supported streaming revenues. According to InvestingPro, five analysts have recently revised their earnings expectations downward for the upcoming period.
Warner Music Group’s revenue growth from both subscription and ad-supported streaming in FY2Q25 fell short of Goldman Sachs’ and consensus expectations. The company’s overall revenue declined by 0.91% in the last twelve months, with current gross profit margins at 46.8%. This shortfall was attributed to a weaker market share performance and macroeconomic factors negatively impacting advertising revenue. In response to these results, Warner Music Group’s management revised their forecast for subscription streaming revenue growth for the full fiscal year 2025, scaling back from previous high-single-digit growth expectations.
The company now anticipates persistent challenges throughout FY2025, including tough comparisons, a lighter release slate, and market share loss in China. Consequently, Goldman Sachs has adjusted its model to anticipate approximately 3% year-over-year constant currency growth for the remainder of the fiscal year, a significant decrease from the previously expected 7% growth.
Additionally, the second quarter results have led to a decrease in confidence regarding Warner Music Group’s margin expansion and free cash flow conversion. Prior expectations for ’core’ margin expansion of roughly 100 basis points per year and operating cash flow conversion aligning with the higher end of management’s 50-60% outlook have been tempered due to the pacing of Artist & Repertoire (A&R) investment and technology spending.
The analyst’s comments highlighted the reduced visibility into Warner Music Group’s financial trajectory, citing more cautious revenue growth expectations and increased spending as factors contributing to the revised outlook. Trading at a P/E ratio of 31.8x and showing signs of financial strain with short-term obligations exceeding liquid assets, the stock appears overvalued according to InvestingPro’s Fair Value analysis. The new price target of $28.00 reflects these updated projections and the current assessment of the company’s financial health.
In other recent news, Warner Music Group reported its second-quarter earnings for 2025, revealing a notable shortfall in both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue. The company posted an EPS of $0.07, significantly below the anticipated $0.29, while revenue reached $1.48 billion, missing the forecasted $1.52 billion. This earnings miss comes amid challenges in subscription streaming growth, which is expected to persist throughout the fiscal year. Warner Music is focusing on cost savings and strategic investments in technology and artist development to address these challenges. The company also plans to pursue potential mergers and acquisitions as part of its strategic initiatives. Analysts from firms like Guggenheim Securities and Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn) have shown interest in Warner Music’s strategies for market share growth and subscription streaming. Warner Music’s management has emphasized their focus on technology investments and artist development as key components of their strategy. Despite the current hurdles, Warner Music remains optimistic about its long-term growth prospects.
This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.