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On Wednesday, Goldman Sachs analyst Jonathan Kownator upgraded Grand City Properties SA (ETR:GYC:GR) stock rating from Neutral to Buy, setting a new price target of EUR13.20, down from the previous target of EUR13.90. Kownator cited three primary factors influencing the positive outlook for the real estate company.
Firstly, the analyst pointed out the accelerated like-for-like (LFL) rent growth for the fiscal year 2024, which reached 3.8%, driven by favorable demand and supply dynamics, especially in Berlin and London. The expectation is that strong rental growth will persist at around 4% annually. Additionally, Grand City Properties is poised to gain from regulatory improvements and further investment in housing.
Secondly, the company reported a like-for-like revaluation close to 2.6% in the second half of 2024, and a notable net tangible assets (NTA) per share growth of 5.2% in the fourth quarter of 2024. This growth rate was significantly higher than the average of its peers, which stood at 1.8%. Based on these figures, Goldman Sachs forecasts a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5% for the company’s EPRA NTA per share, expected to rise from €24.3 at the end of 2024 to €30.7 by the end of 2029.
Lastly, the company has made strides in deleveraging, as evidenced by a 2% decrease in its EPRA loan-to-value (LTV) from 48% at the end of the third quarter of 2024 to 46% at the end of the fourth quarter. This reduction is attributed to asset disposals. Moreover, Grand City Properties has a large portion of its debt hedged (95%), and it has secured lower interest rates on its non-hedged debt as interest rates have stabilized, which has contributed to a reduction in the cost of debt by 20 basis points quarter over quarter, to 1.9% at the fiscal year-end 2024.
The combination of these factors, including the expected return on capital employed (ROCE) of 5.9% for 2026 compared to the estimated cost of capital at 5.4%, suggests an attractive return profile for Grand City Properties, according to Goldman Sachs’ analysis.
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