Goldman Sachs maintains sell rating on Couchbase stock after earnings

Published 04/06/2025, 11:16
Goldman Sachs maintains sell rating on Couchbase stock after earnings

On Wednesday, Goldman Sachs analysts reiterated a Sell rating for Couchbase Inc (NASDAQ: BASE), maintaining their price target at $16, below the current trading price of $18.56. According to InvestingPro data, analyst targets for the stock range from $16 to $26, with the stock currently trading above its Fair Value estimate. This follows the company’s first-quarter earnings for fiscal year 2026, which showed revenue and annual recurring revenue (ARR) slightly surpassing consensus estimates, while operating margin exceeded expectations by 100 basis points.

Despite the positive in-quarter performance, Couchbase shares fell 2% in after-hours trading. Investors are weighing the company’s ARR outperformance against lowered assumptions for net new ARR in the second half of fiscal year 2026. The analysts noted that although Couchbase’s Capella ARR accelerated significantly, contributing to the highest first-quarter net new ARR ever, the overall ARR growth is still projected to be below 20% for the fiscal year, with a deceleration compared to the first quarter. InvestingPro data shows impressive gross profit margins of 88.08%, though the company remains unprofitable with a negative EBITDA of $78.17 million in the last twelve months.

The report highlighted several positive aspects, such as a significant increase in new free tier accounts, which indicates potential for future conversions to paid accounts, and strong growth in Capella credit consumption. However, the analysts pointed out that only one customer added more than $100,000 in ARR during the quarter, a decrease compared to previous quarters. Additionally, remaining performance obligations contracted by 5% quarter-over-quarter and showed limited year-over-year growth.

Goldman Sachs analysts expressed concern over the company’s path to achieving positive operating margins and free cash flow, as well as increasing competition from larger competitors. They stated that they would consider becoming more positive on Couchbase if there is evidence of sustained improvement in new business trends and a return to ARR growth exceeding 20%. InvestingPro analysis reveals the company maintains strong liquidity with a current ratio of 1.79 and holds more cash than debt on its balance sheet. For deeper insights into Couchbase’s financial health and growth prospects, investors can access the comprehensive Pro Research Report, available exclusively to InvestingPro subscribers.

In other recent news, Couchbase Inc. reported its financial results for the second quarter of 2025, revealing earnings per share of -0.33, which did not meet the anticipated -0.08. However, the company achieved revenue of $56.5 million, surpassing the forecast of $55.59 million. The revenue growth was notable at 10% year-over-year, highlighting strong sales performance despite the earnings miss. Couchbase’s Total (EPA:TTEF) Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) reached $252.1 million, a 21% increase year-over-year, with significant contributions from its cloud-based platform, Capella, which saw an 84% increase in ARR. In other developments, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) analysts raised Couchbase’s stock price target to $19 from $18, maintaining an Equalweight rating. This adjustment was influenced by the company’s annual recurring revenue growth of 20% in constant currency, which surpassed expectations. Couchbase’s fiscal year 2026 ARR outlook has been raised to a year-over-year growth of more than 18%, supported by accelerated growth in its Capella platform. These recent developments underscore Couchbase’s strategic initiatives and robust performance in the competitive database market.

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